Saturday, 24 August 2013

COT data of Aug 20th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  138505; spreads 3772 (= 2.7%). Closing price on Aug 20th: 1.5670

Nett differences:
Commercials +40931 (from +55820)  Large Specs -39522 (from -46521).  Small Specs -1409 (from -9299).
Commercials (46.1% of total o/i) - 61.3% of Longs, 30.9% of Shorts, balance plus 30.4
Large Specs (34.7% of total) - 20.0% of Longs, 49.3% of Shorts, balance minus 29.3
Small Specs (19.2% of total) - 18.7% of Longs, 19.8% of Shorts, balance minus 1.1
Prices moved higher initially, but fell after reaching a technical target at 1.5700 (actual high was around 1.5720). Small Specs were sucked in, adding to longs while cutting a few shorts, while Commercials liquidated longs on the rally (although they didn't add to shorts). The last time Small Specs reduced shorts to this sort of level (both outright, and proportionately), on June 18th, prices started falling, and there seems no reason why values should not fall from here this time also.

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