Saturday, 23 May 2015

CFTC COT data of May 19th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182607, spreads 1093 (0.6%).  Closing price May 19th 1.5495
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +23388 )from +38987)  Large Specs -23362 (from -30769)
                              Small Specs -26 (from -8218)

 Commercials (58.3% of total o/i) - 
  64.7% of Longs (from 68.1%), 51.8% of Shorts (vs 546.8%), balance plus 12.9 (vs plus 21.3)
 Large Specs (29.1% of total) - 
   22.7% of Longs (from 20.6%), 35.6% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 12.9 (vs minus 16.8) 

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 
  12.6% of Longs (from 11.3%), 12.6% of Shorts (vs 15.8%), balance square (vs minus 4.5)

 Commercials were quick to reduce longs once more, while adding considerably to shorts - seems like they needed only minor encouragement to get back to their recently normal "slightly nett long" position - their nett balance is now the lowest since end Oct last year. Large Specs reduced shorts and added to longs, both outright and proportionately, and Small Specs did the same. With the dust now settling, it seems Commercials (whose opinion we trust in the long run) are not very bullish, while Small Specs (whose opinion we prefer to 'fade') are completely undecided - they have their smallest share of the total open interest since last September.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 98050, spreads 3516 (3.6%). Closing price May 19th 95.36

Nett differences:  Commercials -62596 (from -66103)  Large Specs +53483 (from +55336)
                              Small Specs +9113 (from +10767)
Proportions -

 Commercials (49.8% of total o/i) - 16.7% of Longs (from 14.0%), 82.9% of Shorts (vs 81.8%), balance minus 66.2 (vs minus 67.8)

 Large Specs (39.8% of total) - 68.1% of Longs (from 69.1%), 11.5% of Shorts (vs 12.3%), balance plus 56.6 (vs plus 56.8) 
  Small Specs (10.4% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 16.9%), 5.6% of Shorts (vs 5.9%), balance plus 9.6
 (vs plus 11.0)
 Commercials yet again added to longs and reduced shorts (slightly), once more taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year. Large Specs continued to cut both longs and shorts, staying nett long, while Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts. Their overall nett long has become even smaller. Further minor strength seems likely.

No comments:

Post a Comment