Saturday 2 May 2015

CFTC COT data of Apr 28th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]


British Pounds - Total o/i 171698, spreads 1482 (0.9%).  Closing price Apr 28th 1.5335
  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +44758 (from +47497)  Large Specs -34128 (from -29281)
                              Small Specs -10630 (from -18216)

  Proportions:
 Commercials (56.3% of total o/i) - 
  69.5% of Longs (from 71.8%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 44.4%), balance plus 26.3 (vs plus 27.4)
 Large Specs (29.6% of total) - 
   19.5% of Longs (from 20.0%), 39.6% of Shorts (vs 36.9%), balance minus 20.1 (vs minus 16.9) 

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 
  11.0% of Longs (from 8.2%), 17.2% of Shorts (vs 18.7%), balance minus 6.2 (vs minus 10.5)

 Total o/i fell again in most categories, the exceptions being Large Specs (who added to shorts) and Small Specs (who added to longs) - in the short term, this is not constructive. Commercials took advantage of the rally to liquidate longs, while Large Specs added to shorts. The last time Small Specs reduced their nett short so noticeably (in early March), prices promptly started falling ...



Dollar Index: Total o/i 112648, spreads 3408 (3.0%). Closing price Apr 28th 986.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -79757 (from -88374)  Large Specs +64584 (from +71721)
                              Small Specs +15173 (from +16653)
Proportions -

 Commercials (44.1% of total o/i) - 7.7% of Longs (from 7.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 85.6%), balance minus 73.0 (vs minus 78.0)

 Large Specs (42.0% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 75.8%), 12.4% of Shorts (vs 12.5%), balance plus 59.1 (vs plus 63.3) 
  Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 20.8% of Longs (from 16.6%), 6.9% of Shorts (vs 1.9%), balance plus 13.9

 (vs plus 14.7)
 
  Big changes this week, with Commercials taking advantage of the dip to cover shorts, and Large Specs reducing longs to their lowest nett level since the start of the year. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, and now have an unusually large share of the total o/i - they remain nett long - we remain nett bearish (in the short term).

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