Saturday, 2 February 2013

COT data of Jan 29th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i rose, to 166060, with spreads also higher, at 3248 (2.0% of the total).
Nett differences:
Commercials +140 (from -23389).  Large Specs +10622 (from +17938).  Small Specs -10762 (from +5451). Commercials moved to nett long (although only barely) - the first time since mid-August of last year.
Small Specs went nett short, also for the first time since August 2012.
Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 52.3% of Longs, 52.2% of Shorts, balance plus 0.1 
Large Specs (32.4% of total) - 35.6% of Longs, 29.1% of Shorts, balance plus 6.5
Small Specs (15.4% of total) - 12.1% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance minus 6.6 
Commercials again added considerably to longs, and reduced shorts; Large Specs reduced both longs and  shorts, becoming less long overall. Small Specs reduced longs noticeably, and also added to shorts - even though their share of the total market remained little changed, their proportion of shorts (in conjunction with the fact that Commercials went nett long) creates danger signals. 

Tuesday's close was down from the previous week, at 1.5765, but since then the market has proved highly erratic, bouncing from around 1.5700 to almost 1.5900 before falling again. Based on the COT figures (and although fundamental backing seems absent), we continue to look for steadier conditions for the Pound. 

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