Saturday 20 December 2014

COT data of Dec 16th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 137581, spreads 2263 (1.6%).  Closing price Dec 16th 1.5750

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +27092 (from +38450)  Large Specs -14552 (from -23602)
                              Small Specs -12540 (from -14848)
  Proportions:
 Commercials (49.6% of total o/i) - 
  59.6% of Longs (from 69.2%), 39.6% of Shorts (vs 47.8%), balance plus 20.0 (vs plus 21.4)
 Large Specs (33.3% of total) - 
  28.0% of Longs (from 21.0%), 38.7% of Shorts (vs 34.1%), balance minus 10.7 (vs minus 13.1)   
  Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 
  12.4% of Longs (from 9.8%), 21.7% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance minus 9.3 (vs minus 8.3) 
 
Both the total open position and spreads were reduced considerably. Commercials again cut back their nett longs, while Large Specs became less short. Small Specs appear somewhat over-commited  on the long side - any rise in prices seems likely to be limited in scope.
 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 87377, spreads 1320 (1.5%). Closing price Dec 16th 88.30

Nett differences:  Commercials -46299 (from -49821)  Large Specs +31964 (from +36406)
                              Small Specs +14335 (from +13415)
Proportions -
Commercials (37.3% of total o/i) - 10.4% of Longs (from 9.7%), 64.2% of Shorts (vs 64.6%), balance minus 53.8 (vs minus 54.9)
Large Specs (53.1% of total) - 71.6% of Longs (from 74.2%), 34.5% of Shorts (vs 34.1%), balance plus 37.1 (vs plus 40.1) 
 Small Specs (9.6% of total) - 18.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 
 16.7 (vs plus 14.8)

Only noticeable change is in Small Specs, who went longer - not normally a bullish sign ...

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