Saturday, 16 March 2013

COT data of March 12th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was up considerably, at 297130, with spreads also much higher, at 18032 (which, if correct, is the highest for well over a year, at 6.1% of the total). A high number of spreads tends to indicate indecision, which in this case could mean a change of trend.

Nett differences:
Commercials +82484 (from +81548).  Large Specs -49800 (from -43849).  Small Specs -32684 (from -37699). Commercials again added to their longs on both measures (outright and proportionately), but added more to their shorts, also on both measures. Large Specs reduced both their longs and their shorts, with their share of the total market noticeably lower, while Small Specs took profits on their shorts but made little change to their longs.
NB Price last Tuesday night was 1.4905, after a low for the move at 1.4830; since then we've seen a rally to around 1.5175, with Friday's close at 1.5115. On that basis, positions could have been altered considerably since the COT figures were struck. 

Commercials (67.9% of total o/i) - 82.7% of Longs, 53.1% of Shorts, balance plus 29.6
Large Specs (19.2% of total) - 10.3% of Longs, 28.2% of Shorts, balance minus 17.9
Small Specs (12.9% of total) - 7.0% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance minus 11.7

Although the Commercials' nett balance has come down to plus 29.6 (from plus 35.2), they still hold the whip hand, with a very large proportion of existing longs. On the other hand, both Large and Small Specs have taken profits on their shorts, suggesting they may not panic unduly if prices start to rally. They still remain quite short overall, however, and we would hesitate to join them at current levels.  

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