CFTC COT data of Apr 21st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175066, spreads 1293 (0.7%).  Closing price Apr 21st 1.4925

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47497 (from +57723)  Large Specs -29281 (from -36045)
                              Small Specs -18216 (from -21678)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.1% of total o/i) - 

  71.8% of Longs (from 73.2%), 44.4% of Shorts (vs 42.3%), balance plus 27.4 (vs plus 30.9)

 Large Specs (28.5% of total) - 

   20.0% of Longs (from 18.2%), 36.9% of Shorts (vs 37.5%), balance minus 16.9 (vs minus 19.3) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  8.2% of Longs (from 8.6%), 18.7% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance minus 10.5 (vs minus 11.6)

 Total o/i fell, with reductions in all categories. Commercials (who have a big share of the open interest at present) reduced longs more than shorts, showing less confidence in stronger prices from here, whereas Large Specs cut their shorts on the rally and added slightly to longs. Small Specs continue to play a minor role, and the impending General Election seems to remain an inhibiting influence.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 115918, spreads 2570 (2.2%). Closing price Apr 21st 98.21
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88374 (from -90485)  Large Specs +71721 (from +76407)
                              Small Specs +16653 (from +14078)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.8%), balance minus 78.0 (vs minus 77.4)

 Large Specs (44.2% of total) - 75.8% of Longs (from 77.4%), 12.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 63.3 (vs plus 65.4) 

  Small Specs (9.2% of total) - 16.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 1.9% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 14.7

 (vs plus 12.0)
 
  Commercials proportionately reduced longs more than shorts, but they showed little change on balance. Large Specs acted similarly, leaving the Small Specs to take up the longs - not usually a good sign for the bulls.

CFTC COT data of Apr 14th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 189513, spreads 2362 (1.2%).  Closing price Apr 14th 1.4780

 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +57723 (from +51598)  Large Specs -36045 (from -343013)
                              Small Specs -21678 (from -17297)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.7% of total o/i) - 

  73.2% of Longs (from 71.2%), 42.3% of Shorts (vs 43.0%), balance plus 30.9 (vs plus 28.2)

 Large Specs (27.8% of total) - 

   18.2% of Longs (from 20.5%), 37.5% of Shorts (vs 39.3%), balance minus 19.3 (vs minus 18.8) 

  Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 

  8.6% of Longs (from 8.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 17.7%), balance minus 11.6 (vs minus 9.4)

 Total o/i was higher again, but with prices continuing their recent sideways path, there is still little guidance to be found in these figures. It is noticeable however that Small Specs have been adding to shorts (= bearish), while Commercials have been replacing their longs (= longer-term bullish). Large Specs seem undecided, reducing both longs and shorts.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 119021, spreads 2103 (1.8%). Closing price Apr 14th 98.94
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -90485 (from -89822)  Large Specs +76407 (from +72806)
                              Small Specs +14078 (from +17016)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.1% of total o/i) - 8.4% of Longs (from 8.0%), 85.8% of Shorts (vs 88.7%), balance minus 77.4 (vs minus 80.7)

 Large Specs (44.7% of total) - 77.4% of Longs (from 74.9%), 12.0% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 65.4 (unchanged) 

  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 17.1%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 12.0

 (vs plus 15.3)
   
  Large Specs added to both longs and shorts, leaving their proportionate balance unchanged, although on a nett basis they showed as going longer. Commercials proportionately were a little less short, while Small Specs were a little less long - both suggesting higher levels to come.

CFTC COT data of Apr 7th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 185219, spreads 2006 (1.1%).  Closing price Apr 7th 1.4815

 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +51598 (from +55619)  Large Specs -343013 (from -36630)
                              Small Specs -17297 (from -18989)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.1% of total o/i) - 

  71.2% of Longs (from 72.7%), 43.0% of Shorts (vs 41.8%), balance plus 28.2 (vs plus 30.9)

 Large Specs (29.9% of total) - 

   20.5% of Longs (from 19.5%), 39.3% of Shorts (vs 39.8%), balance minus 18.8 (vs minus 20.3) 

  Small Specs (13.0% of total) - 

  8.3% of Longs (from 7.8%), 17.7% of Shorts (vs 18.4%), balance minus 9.4 (vs minus 10.6)

 Total o/i was higher, but nett figures and balances were all reduced, suggesting reinforcement of existing opinions. There is still little guidance to be found in these figures (although the approach of the tightly balanced General Election [May 7th] is starting to heighten market nervousness). Commercials added to shorts, while both Large and Small Specs flirted with the long side.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 113690, spreads 2379 (2.1%). Closing price Apr 7th 98.06
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -89822 (from -92366)  Large Specs +72806 (from +73143)
                              Small Specs +17016 (from +19223)

Proportions -

 Commercials (48.4% of total o/i) - 8.0% of Longs (from 7.6%), 88.7% of Shorts (vs 86.4%), balance minus 80.7 (vs minus 78.8)

 Large Specs (42.2% of total) - 74.9% of Longs (from 74.4%), 9.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 65.4 (vs plus 62.4) 

  Small Specs (9.4% of total) - 17.1% of Longs (from 18.0%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 15.3

 (vs plus 16.4)
   
  Large Specs apparently expect the upward trend to be resumed, cutting their shorts considerably, but Commercials continue to sell - in the long run they tend to be right.

CFTC COT data of Mar 31st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182514, spreads 2354 (1.3%).  Closing price Mar 31st 1.4835
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +55619 (from +58858)  Large Specs -36630 (from -38557)

                              Small Specs -18989 (from -20301)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.2% of total o/i) - 

  72.7% of Longs (from 71.4%), 41.8% of Shorts (vs 37.8%), balance plus 30.9 (vs plus 33.6)

 Large Specs (29.7% of total) - 

   19.5% of Longs (from 20.5%), 39.8% of Shorts (vs 42.5%), balance minus 20.3 (vs minus 22.0) 

  Small Specs (13.1% of total) - 

  7.8% of Longs (from 8.1%), 18.4% of Shorts (vs 19.7%), balance minus 10.6 (vs minus 11.6)
All outright numbers were reduced, but overall (both proportionately and outright) figures showed little demonstrable change. This may be the result of the current sideways market, or of the long Easter holiday weekend in Britain, but either way it doesn't help provide much guidance.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 118796, spreads 1569 (1.3%). Closing price Mar 31st 98.65
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -92366 (from -88574)  Large Specs +73143 (from +71227)
                              Small Specs +19223 (from +17347)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.0% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 86.4% of Shorts (vs 86.0%), balance minus 78.8 (vs minus 77.6)

 Large Specs (43.2% of total) - 74.4% of Longs (from 73.1%), 12.0% of Shorts (vs 10.7%), balance plus 62.4 (vs plus 62.4) 

  Small Specs (9.8% of total) - 18.0% of Longs (from 18.5%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 3.3%), balance plus 16.4

 (vs plus 15.2)
   
  The limited change that has taken place - with Commercials going shorter and Small Specs going longer - simply reinforces our current moderately negative view. Large Specs added almost equally to both longs and shorts.

CFTC COT data of Mar 24th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 178140, spreads 2698 (1.5%).  Closing price Mar 24th 1.4850 
 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +58858 (from +59626)  Large Specs -38557 (from -37851)

                              Small Specs -20301 (from -21775)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.6% of total o/i) - 

  71.4% of Longs (from 67.1%), 37.8% of Shorts (vs 35.1%), balance plus 33.6 (vs plus 32.0)

 Large Specs (31.5% of total) - 

   20.5% of Longs (from 25.4%), 42.5% of Shorts (vs 45.7%), balance minus 22.0 (vs minus 20.3)   

  Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 

  8.1% of Longs (from 7.5%), 19.7% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance minus 11.6 (vs minus 11.7)

Not much change in outright numbers, but proportionately Commercials have added to longs rather more than they added to shorts, remaining overall on the bull tack. Large Specs cut all positions, while remaining nett short. Small Specs also stayed short - it still seems likely that the Pound will continue to rise.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 116148, spreads 2036 (1.8%). Closing price Mar 24th 97.45
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88574 (from -100818)  Large Specs +71227 (from +79726)
                              Small Specs +17347 (from +21092)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.2% of total o/i) - 8.4% of Longs (from 8.5%), 86.0% of Shorts (vs 85.6%), balance minus 77.6 (vs minus 77.1)

 Large Specs (41.9% of total) - 73.1% of Longs (from 73.8%), 10.7% of Shorts (vs 12.8%), balance plus 62.4 (vs plus 61.0) 

  Small Specs (10.9% of total) - 18.5% of Longs (from 17.7%), 3.3% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 15.2

 (vs plus 16.1)
   
  Unlike the situation in Sterling, there has been a marked change in nett numbers but very little in the proportionate - Commercials remain short, Specs remain long. We'll stay with the Commercials. 

CFTC COT data of Mar 17th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 188238, spreads 2213 (1.2%).  Closing price Mar 17th 1.4750 
 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +59626 (from +47650)  Large Specs -37851 (from -32591)
                              Small Specs -21775 (from -15059)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (51.1% of total o/i) - 

  67.1% of Longs (from 66.9%), 35.1% of Shorts (vs 42.8%), balance plus 32.0 (vs plus 24.1)

 Large Specs (35.5% of total) - 

   25.4% of Longs (from 24.3%), 45.7% of Shorts (vs 40.8%), balance minus 20.3 (vs minus 16.5)   

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  7.5% of Longs (from 8.8%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 16.4%), balance minus 11.7 (vs minus 7.6)

Commercials reduced shorts considerably, while Large Specs added to theirs - with Small Specs also adding noticeably to shorts, any rise in prices could bring in quite a lot of covering. It seems even more likely that the Pound could strengthen from here.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 132548, spreads 1793 (1.4%). Closing price Mar 17th 99.95
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -100818 (from -99734)  Large Specs +79726 (from +81270)
                              Small Specs +21092 (from +18464)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.0% of total o/i) - 8.5% of Longs (from 11.3%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.9%), balance minus 77.1 (vs minus 74.6)

 Large Specs (43.4% of total) - 73.8% of Longs (from 72.7%), 12.8% of Shorts (vs 11.9%), balance plus 61.0 (vs plus 60.8) 

  Small Specs (9.6% of total) - 17.7% of Longs (from 16.0%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 16.1

 (vs plus 13.8)
   
A great deal has happened since the COT figures were taken Tuesday night, including the massive price drop on Wednesday - based on these old figures, Commercials seem very happy to stay with their big short position.

CFTC COT data of Mar 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 205166, spreads 7704 (3.8%).  Closing price Mar 10th 1.5065 

 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47650 (from +35400)  Large Specs -32591 (from -26908)
                              Small Specs -15059 (from -8492)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.8% of total o/i) - 

  66.9% of Longs (from 61.2%), 42.8% of Shorts (vs 39.7%), balance plus 24.1 (vs plus 21.5)

 Large Specs (32.6% of total) - 

   24.3% of Longs (from 27.1%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 16.5 (vs minus 16.3)   

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 

  8.8% of Longs (from 11.7%), 16.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance minus 7.6 (vs minus 5.2)

Commercials have added to longs, both nett and proportionately, although their balance is by no means extreme. Large Specs added noticeably to shorts on a nett basis, but their proportionate figure was not much changed, since the total o/i increased considerably. Small Specs retain a very small proportion of the total, but have added to shorts. All told, we might expect some steadiness for a while.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 148486, spreads 14822 (10.0%). Closing price Mar 10th 98.60
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -99734 (from -86444)  Large Specs +81270 (from +67218)
                              Small Specs +18464 (from +19226)

Proportions -

 Commercials (48.6% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 11.7%), 85.9% of Shorts (vs 83.1%), balance minus 74.6 (vs minus 71.4)

 Large Specs (42.3% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 70.8%), 11.9% of Shorts (vs 15.3%), balance plus 60.8 (vs plus 55.5) 

  Small Specs (9.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 17.5%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.6%), balance plus 13.8

 (vs plus 15.9)
   
The very large increase in spreads and in the total o/i could be explained by the approach of the March expiry, but otherwise recent trends seem expected to continue - always a dangerous circumstance.