CFTC COT data of Jun 23rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

British Pounds - Total o/i 178641, spreads 1234 (0.7%).  Closing price Jun 23rd 1.5725
  

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +15587 (from +25547)  Large Specs -22194 (from -25434) 

                              Small Specs +6607 (from -113) 

  Proportions: 

Commercials (50.6% of total o/i) - 55.0% of Longs (from 60.6%), 46.2% of Shorts (from 43.0%), balance plus 8.8 (from plus 17.6)

Large Specs (35.3% of total) - 29.0% of Longs (from 23.3), 41.5% of Shorts (from 40.8%), balance minus 12.5 (from minus 17.5) 

   Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 16.1%), 12.3% of Shorts 

  (from 16.2%), balance plus 3.7 (from minus 0.1) 

  A change of attitude this week, with Commercials becoming bearish and Small Specs moving to the bull tack. Also a marked difference between the outright positions and the proportional - Commercials for example added to their total longs but held a lesser share of the increased total o/i, with the opposite showing on their shorts. Their proportionate balance, of plus 8.8, is the smallest since October last year - after that, Sterling gradually eased. With Small Specs going long, we expect the same to happen this time. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 85932, spreads 1835 (2.1%). Closing price Jun 23rd 95.64

 
Nett differences:  Commercials -63553 (from -65003)  Large Specs +52345 (from +53420)  Small Specs +11208 (from +11583)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.7% of total o/i) - 8.9% of Longs (from 9.3%), 84.4% of Shorts (from 85.6%), balance minus 75.5 (from minus 76.3)
 Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 75.7% of Longs (from 75.1%), 13.5% of Shorts (from 12.4%), balance plus 62.2 (from plus 62.7)
  Small Specs (8.7% of total) - 15.4% of Longs (from 15.6%), 2.1% of Shorts (from 2.0%), balance plus 13.3 (from plus 13.6)

Not much change overall (although we note that prices did dip, as expected, in the period between the 16th and the 23rd). Commercials are still favouring the short side - so do we. 

Please note - this will be the last published comment on Pound and Dollar Index. Thank you for your interest ... 

CFTC COT data of Jun 16th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 146635, spreads 1350 (0.9%).  Closing price Jun 16th 1.5650
 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +25547 (from +30440)  Large Specs -25434 (from -28277)

                              Small Specs -113 (from -2163)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (51.8% of total o/i) - 60.6% of Longs (from 69.5%), 43.0% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 17.6 (from plus 17.5)

 Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 23.3% of Longs (from 17.8), 40.8% of Shorts (from 34.0%), balance minus 17.5 (from minus 16.2) 

  Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 16.1% of Longs (from 12.7%), 16.2% of Shorts (from 14.0%), balance minus 0.1 (from minus 1.3)

 
  Both spreads and total o/i were reduced considerably, primarily by the Commercials, but their proportional balance ended not much changed. Small Specs hold their largest total open position since early January - with their balance near square, this could suggest twitchy trading in the near term. Large Specs added to longs, but were also hanging on to their shorts - it will be interesting to see whether they have thrown in the towel during the recent rally. With Commercials still moderately long, dips are likely to be limited. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 86281, spreads 1140 (1.3%). Closing price Jun 16th 95.26
Nett differences:  Commercials -65003 (from -76035)  Large Specs +53420 (from +62877)

                              Small Specs +11583 (from +13158)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 9.3% of Longs (from 12.8%), 85.6% of Shorts (from 87.9%), balance minus 76.3 (from minus 75.1)
 Large Specs (43.8% of total) - 75.1% of Longs (from 72.5%), 12.4% of Shorts (from 10.4%), balance plus 62.7 (from plus 62.1) 
  Small Specs (8.8% of total) - 15.6% of Longs (from 14.7%), 2.0% of Shorts (from 1.7%), balance plus 13.6 (from plus 13.0)
 
  Total o/i fell considerably, but proportions did not change dramatically. Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, but stayed nett short overall. Large Specs reduced longs considerably, although proportionately they held an increased share. There still seems no reason to turn bullish.

CFTC COT data of Jun 9th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 181049, spreads 6831 (3.8%).  Closing price Jun 9th 1.5375
 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30440 (from +28514)  Large Specs -28277 (from -25658)

                              Small Specs -2163 (from -2856)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (60.8% of total o/i) - 

  69.5% of Longs (from 68.1%), 52.0% of Shorts (from 51.6%), balance plus 17.5 (from plus 16.5)

 Large Specs (25.9% of total) -

   17.8% of Longs (from 19.0), 34.0% of Shorts (from 33.8%), balance minus 16.2 (from minus 14.8) 

  Small Specs (13.3% of total) - 

  12.7% of Longs (from 12.9%), 14.0% of Shorts (from 14.6%), balance minus 1.3 (from minus 1.7)

 
  Although total o/i went up, much of the increase comprised additional spreads, presumably ahead of the June position going off the board. Otherwise, not much change, in either total or proportional figures.  Once again, we can only reiterate previous comments, although the odds on some further steadiness are looking stronger. 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 105463, spreads 4204 (4.0%). Closing price Jun 9th 95.17

Nett differences:  Commercials -76035 (from -73188)  Large Specs +62877 (from +59722)
                              Small Specs +13158 (from +13466)

Proportions -

 Commercials (50.3% of total o/i) - 12.8% of Longs (from 12.6%), 87.9% of Shorts (from 86.2%), balance minus 75.1 (from minus 73.6)

 Large Specs (41.5% of total) - 72.5% of Longs (from 72.9%), 10.4% of Shorts (from 12.8%), balance plus 62.1 (from plus 60.1) 
  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.7% of Longs (from 14.5%), 1.7% of Shorts (from 1.0%), balance plus 13.0

(from plus 13.5)
 
  Commercials added considerably to shorts and also added slightly to longs, taking their total share of o/i to just over 50%. Large Specs did the reverse, while Small Specs remained basically sidelined. There seems no reason to change our view - taking guidance from the Commercials, in the medium term we'll remain bearish. 

CFTC COT data of Jun 2nd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175291, spreads 2560 (1.5%).  Closing price Jun 2nd 1.5345

 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +28514 (from +26865)  Large Specs -25658 (from -25539)
                              Small Specs -2856 (from -1326)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.8% of total o/i) - 

  68.1% of Longs (from 67.4%), 51.6% of Shorts (from 52.0%), balance plus 16.5 (from plus 15.4)

 Large Specs (26.4% of total) - 

   19.0% of Longs (from 19.8), 33.8% of Shorts (from 34.4%), balance minus 14.8 (from minus 14.6) 

  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 

  12.9% of Longs (from 12.8%), 14.6% of Shorts (from 13.6%), balance minus 1.7 (from minus 0.8)

  Very little change in either the o/i figures or in the week-to-week price - we can only reiterate last week's comment: major weakness from here looks unlikely.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 102174, spreads 2708 (2.7%). Closing price Jun 2nd 95.90

Nett differences:  Commercials -73188 (from -65900)  Large Specs +59722 (from +52296)
                              Small Specs +13466 (from +13604)

Proportions -

 Commercials (49.4% of total o/i) - 12.6% of Longs (from 14.5%), 86.2% of Shorts (vs 80.2%), balance minus 73.6 (vs minus 65.7)

 Large Specs (42.8% of total) - 72.9% of Longs (from 69.5%), 12.8% of Shorts (vs 17.3%), balance plus 60.1 (vs plus 52.2) 
  Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.5% of Longs (from 16.0%), 1.0% of Shorts (vs 2.5%), balance plus 13.5

 (unchanged)
 
 Once again, Commercials reduced longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs added to longs but - this time - reduced shorts considerably. Small Specs reduced both long and short positions. Last week's comment proved correct, but this week's decision is more difficult - should one follow the Commercials (who are distinctly short), or the Large Specs (who are comparatively long)? [Small Specs seem to reflect this dilemma - they have a very limited commitment at present].  Our inclination, as always, is to take guidance from the Commercials in the medium term. 

CFTC COT data of May 26th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 176797, spreads 1871 (1.1%).  Closing price May 26th 1.5385

 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +26865 (from +23388)  Large Specs -25539 (from -23362)
                              Small Specs -1326 (from -26)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.7% of total o/i) - 

  67.4% of Longs (from 64.7%), 52.0% of Shorts (from 51.8%), balance plus 15.4 (from plus 12.9)

 Large Specs (27.1% of total) - 

   19.8% of Longs (from 22.7%), 34.4% of Shorts (from 35.6%), balance minus 14.6 (from minus 12.9) 

  Small Specs (13.2% of total) - 

  12.8% of Longs (from 12.6%), 13.6% of Shorts (from 12.6%), balance minus 0.8 (from square)

 On a nett basis, all positions were increased. On a proportional basis, there was a reversion to the previous pattern - Commercials went slightly longer on the dip, while Large Specs went slightly shorter (following the trend, as usual). Small Specs went marginally short (from square), but are still a comparatively insignificant factor. On this basis, major weakness from here looks unlikely.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 103211, spreads 2916 (2.8%). Closing price May 26th 97.40

Nett differences:  Commercials -65900 (from -62596)  Large Specs +52296 (from +53483)
                              Small Specs +13604 (from +9113)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.3% of total o/i) - 14.5% of Longs (from 16.7%), 80.2% of Shorts (vs 82.9%), balance minus 65.7 (vs minus 66.2)

 Large Specs (43.4% of total) - 69.5% of Longs (from 68.1%), 17.3% of Shorts (vs 11.5%), balance plus 52.2 (vs plus 56.6) 

  Small Specs (9.3% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 15.2%), 2.5% of Shorts (vs 5.6%), balance plus 13.5

 (vs plus 9.6)
 
 Commercials reduced longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs added to longs and - more aggressively - to shorts. Small Specs also added to longs, but reduced their already small short position. It appears that the current minor rally may end soon.

CFTC COT data of May 19th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182607, spreads 1093 (0.6%).  Closing price May 19th 1.5495

 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +23388 )from +38987)  Large Specs -23362 (from -30769)
                              Small Specs -26 (from -8218)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.3% of total o/i) - 

  64.7% of Longs (from 68.1%), 51.8% of Shorts (vs 546.8%), balance plus 12.9 (vs plus 21.3)

 Large Specs (29.1% of total) - 

   22.7% of Longs (from 20.6%), 35.6% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 12.9 (vs minus 16.8) 

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 

  12.6% of Longs (from 11.3%), 12.6% of Shorts (vs 15.8%), balance square (vs minus 4.5)

 Commercials were quick to reduce longs once more, while adding considerably to shorts - seems like they needed only minor encouragement to get back to their recently normal "slightly nett long" position - their nett balance is now the lowest since end Oct last year. Large Specs reduced shorts and added to longs, both outright and proportionately, and Small Specs did the same. With the dust now settling, it seems Commercials (whose opinion we trust in the long run) are not very bullish, while Small Specs (whose opinion we prefer to 'fade') are completely undecided - they have their smallest share of the total open interest since last September.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 98050, spreads 3516 (3.6%). Closing price May 19th 95.36

Nett differences:  Commercials -62596 (from -66103)  Large Specs +53483 (from +55336)
                              Small Specs +9113 (from +10767)

Proportions -

 Commercials (49.8% of total o/i) - 16.7% of Longs (from 14.0%), 82.9% of Shorts (vs 81.8%), balance minus 66.2 (vs minus 67.8)

 Large Specs (39.8% of total) - 68.1% of Longs (from 69.1%), 11.5% of Shorts (vs 12.3%), balance plus 56.6 (vs plus 56.8) 

  Small Specs (10.4% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 16.9%), 5.6% of Shorts (vs 5.9%), balance plus 9.6

 (vs plus 11.0)
 
 Commercials yet again added to longs and reduced shorts (slightly), once more taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year. Large Specs continued to cut both longs and shorts, staying nett long, while Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts. Their overall nett long has become even smaller. Further minor strength seems likely.

CFTC COT data of May 12th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 183586, spreads 909 (0.5%).  Closing price May 12th 1.5670 

  

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +38987 (from +30343)  Large Specs -30769 (from -24758)
                              Small Specs -8218 (from -5585)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.5% of total o/i) - 

  68.1% of Longs (from 68.3%), 46.8% of Shorts (vs 50.7%), balance plus 21.3 (vs plus 17.6)

 Large Specs (29.0% of total) - 

   20.6% of Longs (from 19.9%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance minus 16.8 (vs minus 14.4) 

  Small Specs (13.5% of total) - 

  11.3% of Longs (from 11.8%), 15.8% of Shorts (vs 15.0%), balance minus 4.5 (vs minus 3.2)

 Commercials started adding to longs again, while reducing shorts, but not to a massive extent. Large Specs added to shorts, both outright and proportionately, and Small Specs did the same. There still seems to be a large amount of uncertainty around - we'll wait for the dust to settle.

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 99697, spreads 2266 (2.3%). Closing price May 5th 94.65
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -66103 (from -70375)  Large Specs +55336 (from +58927)
                              Small Specs +10767 (from +11448)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.9% of total o/i) - 14.0% of Longs (from 11.6%), 81.8% of Shorts (vs 82.0%), balance minus 67.8 (vs minus 70.4)

 Large Specs (40.7% of total) - 69.1% of Longs (from 72.7%), 12.3% of Shorts (vs 13.8%), balance plus 56.8 (vs plus 58.9) 

  Small Specs (11.4% of total) - 16.9% of Longs (from 15.7%), 5.9% of Shorts (vs 4.2%), balance plus 11.0

 (vs plus 11.5)
 
 Commercials once again added to longs and reduced shorts (slightly), once more taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year. Large Specs cut both longs and shorts, staying nett long, while Small Specs added slightly to longs but more vigorously to shorts - their overall nett long remains quite small. We're still not particularly bearish.

CFTC COT data of May 5th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 173468, spreads 1441 (0.8%).  Closing price May 5th 1.5170 (close on May 8th 1.5450, after high 1.5520)

  

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30343 (from +44758)  Large Specs -24758 (from -34128)
                              Small Specs -5585 (from -10630)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.5% of total o/i) - 

  68.3% of Longs (from 69.5%), 50.7% of Shorts (vs 43.2%), balance plus 17.6 (vs plus 26.3)

 Large Specs (27.1% of total) - 

   19.9% of Longs (from 19.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 39.6%), balance minus 14.4 (vs minus 20.1) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  11.8% of Longs (from 11.0%), 15.0% of Shorts (vs 17.2%), balance minus 3.2 (vs minus 6.2)

 Commercials added considerably to shorts, both on a nett and a proportionate basis, presumably fearing the worst from the election results. In the event however, the surprise win by the Tories vindicated the Large Specs, who had cut their shorts considerably. The change in next week's figures should give a good idea of longer term views about the new British political world.

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 102100, spreads 2117 (2.1%). Closing price May 5th 95.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -70375 (from -79757)  Large Specs +58927 (from +64584)
                              Small Specs +11448 (from +15173)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.8% of total o/i) - 11.6% of Longs (from 7.7%), 82.0% of Shorts (vs 80.7%), balance minus 70.4 (vs minus 73.0)

 Large Specs (43.2% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 71.5%), 13.8% of Shorts (vs 12.4%), balance plus 58.9 (vs plus 59.1) 

  Small Specs (10.0% of total) - 15.7% of Longs (from 20.8%), 4.2% of Shorts (vs 6.9%), balance plus 11.5

 (vs plus 13.9)
 
 Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year - probably a constructive sign (although maybe not immediately - COT is not necessarily good at giving short-term signals). Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts, putting them down to a comparatively small nett long - also probably a constructive sign.

CFTC COT data of Apr 28th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 171698, spreads 1482 (0.9%).  Closing price Apr 28th 1.5335

  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +44758 (from +47497)  Large Specs -34128 (from -29281)
                              Small Specs -10630 (from -18216)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (56.3% of total o/i) - 

  69.5% of Longs (from 71.8%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 44.4%), balance plus 26.3 (vs plus 27.4)

 Large Specs (29.6% of total) - 

   19.5% of Longs (from 20.0%), 39.6% of Shorts (vs 36.9%), balance minus 20.1 (vs minus 16.9) 

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  11.0% of Longs (from 8.2%), 17.2% of Shorts (vs 18.7%), balance minus 6.2 (vs minus 10.5)

 Total o/i fell again in most categories, the exceptions being Large Specs (who added to shorts) and Small Specs (who added to longs) - in the short term, this is not constructive. Commercials took advantage of the rally to liquidate longs, while Large Specs added to shorts. The last time Small Specs reduced their nett short so noticeably (in early March), prices promptly started falling ...

Dollar Index: Total o/i 112648, spreads 3408 (3.0%). Closing price Apr 28th 986.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -79757 (from -88374)  Large Specs +64584 (from +71721)
                              Small Specs +15173 (from +16653)

Proportions -

 Commercials (44.1% of total o/i) - 7.7% of Longs (from 7.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 85.6%), balance minus 73.0 (vs minus 78.0)

 Large Specs (42.0% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 75.8%), 12.4% of Shorts (vs 12.5%), balance plus 59.1 (vs plus 63.3) 

  Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 20.8% of Longs (from 16.6%), 6.9% of Shorts (vs 1.9%), balance plus 13.9

 (vs plus 14.7)
 
  Big changes this week, with Commercials taking advantage of the dip to cover shorts, and Large Specs reducing longs to their lowest nett level since the start of the year. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, and now have an unusually large share of the total o/i - they remain nett long - we remain nett bearish (in the short term).

CFTC COT data of Apr 21st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175066, spreads 1293 (0.7%).  Closing price Apr 21st 1.4925

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47497 (from +57723)  Large Specs -29281 (from -36045)
                              Small Specs -18216 (from -21678)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.1% of total o/i) - 

  71.8% of Longs (from 73.2%), 44.4% of Shorts (vs 42.3%), balance plus 27.4 (vs plus 30.9)

 Large Specs (28.5% of total) - 

   20.0% of Longs (from 18.2%), 36.9% of Shorts (vs 37.5%), balance minus 16.9 (vs minus 19.3) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  8.2% of Longs (from 8.6%), 18.7% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance minus 10.5 (vs minus 11.6)

 Total o/i fell, with reductions in all categories. Commercials (who have a big share of the open interest at present) reduced longs more than shorts, showing less confidence in stronger prices from here, whereas Large Specs cut their shorts on the rally and added slightly to longs. Small Specs continue to play a minor role, and the impending General Election seems to remain an inhibiting influence.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 115918, spreads 2570 (2.2%). Closing price Apr 21st 98.21
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88374 (from -90485)  Large Specs +71721 (from +76407)
                              Small Specs +16653 (from +14078)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.8%), balance minus 78.0 (vs minus 77.4)

 Large Specs (44.2% of total) - 75.8% of Longs (from 77.4%), 12.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 63.3 (vs plus 65.4) 

  Small Specs (9.2% of total) - 16.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 1.9% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 14.7

 (vs plus 12.0)
 
  Commercials proportionately reduced longs more than shorts, but they showed little change on balance. Large Specs acted similarly, leaving the Small Specs to take up the longs - not usually a good sign for the bulls.