CFTC COT data of Feb 10th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175966, spreads 1542 (0.8%).  Closing price Feb 10th 1.5250 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +54486 (from +61088)  Large Specs -38603 (from -42398)
                              Small Specs -15883 (from -18690)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.0% of total o/i) - 

  69.6% of Longs (from 71.1%), 38.4% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance plus 31.2 (vs plus 33.7)

 Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 

   21.1% of Longs (from 20.0%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance minus 22.1 (vs minus 23.4)   

  Small Specs (13.8% of total) - 

  9.3% of Longs (from 8.9%), 18.4% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance minus 9.1 (vs minus 10.3) 
 

  Almost all sectors of the open interest have been reduced, with Commercials taking some profits on their longs - but not to any extreme extent. Large Specs similarly have cut some shorts, but remain bearish overall. There seems to be no rush to go long the Pound, although that could be the favoured position from here - the downtrend from last July's highs has been broken, after all.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 114816, spreads 3342 (2.9%). Closing price Feb 10th 94.82
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88269 (from -90600)  Large Specs +68938 (from +71606)
                              Small Specs +19331 (from +18994)

Proportions -

 Commercials (50.0% of total o/i) - 10.5% of Longs (from 11.3%), 89.7% of Shorts (vs 84.8%), balance minus 79.2 (vs minus 73.5)

 Large Specs (39.7% of total) - 70.6% of Longs (from 71.5%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 13.4%), balance plus 61.9 (vs plus 58.1) 

  Small Specs (10.3% of total) - 18.9% of Longs (from 17.2%), 1.6% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 17.3 

 (vs plus 15.4) 
Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate); although their nett short position is slightly lower, proportionately it is extremely high. Additionally, Small Specs have added to nett longs - neither statistic is bullish for the Dollar, even though this view may be counter-intuitive. 

CFTC COT data of Feb 3rd 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182903, spreads 1677 (0.9%).  Closing price Feb 3rd 1.5160 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +61088 (from +66219)  Large Specs -42398 (from -45340)
                              Small Specs -18690 (from -20879)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (54.2% of total o/i) - 

  71.1% of Longs (from 70.4%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance plus 33.7 (vs plus 36.1)

 Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 

  20.0% of Longs (from 21.1%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.8%), balance minus 23.4 (vs minus 24.7)   

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  8.9% of Longs (from 8.5%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 10.3 (vs minus 11.4) 
 

Once again, not enough change in proportions to give any particular signal/s - but the decrease in total open interest and in nett positions held might indicate an impending change in trend.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 125025, spreads 1830 (1.5%). Closing price Feb 3rd 93.75 
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -90600 (from -90114)  Large Specs +71606 (from +70673)
                              Small Specs +18994 (from +19441)

Proportions -

  Commercials (48.0% of total o/i) - 11.3% of Longs (from 10.2%), 84.8% of Shorts (vs 80.8%), balance minus 73.5 (vs minus 70.6)

  Large Specs (42.5% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 72.2%), 13.4% of Shorts (vs 16.9%), balance plus 58.1 (vs plus 55.3) 

  Small Specs (9.5% of total) - 17.2% of Longs (from 17.6%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 2.3%), balance plus 15.4 (vs plus 15.3) 

Commercials have added again to their overall short position (both nett and proportionate), with their nett standing at the highest for over 12 months.Since they are (theoretically at least) the best capitalised, and therefore the most capable of holding on to positions against the trend, in the long run they are likely to win. We shall be watching for 'technical' sell signals.

CFTC COT data of Jan 27th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 185350, spreads 1916 (1.0%).  Closing price Jan 27th 1.5190 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +66219 (from +66280)  Large Specs -45340 (from -45708)

                              Small Specs -20879 (from -20572)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (52.4% of total o/i) - 

  70.4% of Longs (from 71.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 34.7%), balance plus 36.1 (vs plus 36.8)

 Large Specs (33.4% of total) - 

  21.1% of Longs (from 19.6%), 45.8% of Shorts (vs 45.0%), balance minus 24.7 (vs minus 25.4)   

  Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 

  8.5% of Longs (from 8.9%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 20.3%), balance minus 11.4 (vs minus 11.4) 
 

Really not enough change to give any particular signal/s - with values almost unchanged for 4 weeks, thats not surprising. Commercials are still expecting the Pound to rise.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 129495, spreads 1790 (1.4%). Closing price Jan 27th 94.26

Nett differences:  Commercials -90114 (from -89122)  Large Specs +70673 (from +73168)
                              Small Specs +19441 (from +15954)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.5% of total o/i) - 10.2% of Longs (from 10.4%), 80.8% of Shorts (vs 79.6%), balance minus 70.6 (vs minus 69.2)

Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 72.2% of Longs (from 75.4%), 16.9% of Shorts (vs 18.6%), balance plus 55.3 (vs plus 56.8) 

 
 Small Specs (9.9% of total) - 17.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 2.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus
  15.3 (vs plus 12.4) 

Commercials now have their biggest short position (both nett and proportionate) for some time - but they have been wrong before ...  On the other hand, Small Commercials have a sizeable long position - but they are sometimes right. We'll wait for more guidance ...

COT data of Jan 20th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182860, spreads 2718 (1.5%).  Closing price Jan 20th 1.5145

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +66280 (from +57827)  Large Specs -45708 (from -37140)

                              Small Specs -20572 (from -20687)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (53.1% of total o/i) - 

  71.5% of Longs (from 67.2%), 34.7% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance plus 36.8 (vs plus 32.9)

 Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 

  19.6% of Longs (from 23.8%), 45.0% of Shorts (vs 44.9%), balance minus 25.4 (vs minus 21.1)   

  Small Specs (14.6% of total) - 

  8.9% of Longs (from 9.0%), 20.3% of Shorts (vs 20.8%), balance minus 11.4 (vs minus 11.8) 
 

Commercials continue to go longer; Large Specs have been cutting longs. Both have left short positions almost unchanged. Small Specs remain short on balance, although with only a limited commitment. We repeat, based on these figures, the next large move appears to be up rather than down for the Pound.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 130077, spreads 1320 (1.0%). Closing price Jan 20th 93.33

Nett differences:  Commercials -89122 (from -87321)  Large Specs +73168 (from +71960)
                              Small Specs +15954 (from +15361)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.0% of total o/i) - 10.4% of Longs (from 11.1%), 79.6% of Shorts (vs 80.4%), balance minus 69.2 (vs minus 69.3)

Large Specs (47.0% of total) - 75.4% of Longs (from 75.2%), 18.6% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance plus 56.8 (vs plus 57.1) 

 Small Specs (8.0% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 13.7%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 1.5%), balance plus
 12.4 (vs plus 12.2) 

Again, no significant change from previously - should mean the recent trend continues. 

COT data of Jan 13th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 178563, spreads 2543 (1.4%).  Closing price Jan 13th 1.5165

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +57827 (from +45197)  Large Specs -37140 (from -25570)
                              Small Specs -20687 (from -19627)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (50.7% of total o/i) - 

  67.2% of Longs (from 65.2%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 36.7%), balance plus 32.9 (vs plus 28.5)

 Large Specs (34.4% of total) - 

  23.8% of Longs (from 24.7%), 44.9% of Shorts (vs 40.8%), balance minus 21.1 (vs minus 16.1)   

  Small Specs (14.9% of total) - 

  9.0% of Longs (from 10.1%), 20.8% of Shorts (vs 22.5%), balance minus 11.8 (vs minus 12.4) 
 

With Commercials still going longer, while Small Specs hold only a small long position, conditions (surprisingly) appear to favour up rather than down for the Pound.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 127504, spreads 1601 (1.3%). Closing price Jan 13th 92.46

Nett differences:  Commercials -87321 (from -85162)  Large Specs +71960 (from +69786)
                              Small Specs +15361 (from +15376)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.8% of total o/i) - 11.1% of Longs (from 8.3%), 80.4% of Shorts (vs 76.6%), balance minus 69.3 (vs minus 68.3)

Large Specs (46.6% of total) - 75.2% of Longs (from 77.9%), 18.1% of Shorts (vs 21.9%), balance plus 57.1 (vs plus 56.0) 

 Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.7% of Longs (from 13.8%), 1.5% of Shorts (vs 1.5%), balance plus
 12.2 (vs plus 12.3) 

No significant change from previously - Large Specs continue to make money, although their overall commitment is lessening ...

COT data of Jan 6th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 161876, spreads 3132 (1.9%).  Closing price Jan 6th 1.5140

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +45197 (from +36809)  Large Specs -25570 (from -19302)
                              Small Specs -19627 (from -17507)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 

  65.2% of Longs (from 64.0%), 36.7% of Shorts (vs 37.9%), balance plus 28.5 (vs plus 26.1)

 Large Specs (32.7% of total) - 

  24.7% of Longs (from 24.8%), 40.8% of Shorts (vs 38.5%), balance minus 16.1 (vs minus 13.7)   

  Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 

  10.1% of Longs (from 11.2%), 22.5% of Shorts (vs 23.6%), balance minus 12.4 (unchanged) 
 

Commercials again added to longs more than shorts, while Small Specs appear somewhat over-committed to the short side. Some base-building would not be a surprise ... 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 126083, spreads 1339 (1.1%). Closing price Jan 6th 91.83

Nett differences:  Commercials -85162 (from -63413)  Large Specs +69786 (from +48833)
                              Small Specs +15376 (from +14580)

Proportions -

Commercials (42.4% of total o/i) - 8.3% of Longs (from 7.4%), 76.6% of Shorts (vs 67.5%), balance minus 68.3 (vs minus 60.1)

Large Specs (49.9% of total) - 77.9% of Longs (from 77.4%), 21.9% of Shorts (vs 31.1%), balance plus 56.0 (vs plus 46.3) 

 Small Specs (7.7% of total) - 13.8% of Longs (from 15.2%), 1.5% of Shorts (vs 1.4%), balance plus
 12.3 (vs plus 13.8) 

Large Specs appear excessively long, Commercials appear excessively short - any downmove from here could be a) abrupt, or b) long-lasting - or c) both ...

COT data of Dec 30th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 143660, spreads 2523 (1.8%).  Closing price Dec 30th 1.5560

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +36809 (from +31582)  Large Specs -19302 (from -15233)
                              Small Specs -17507 (from -16349)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (50.9% of total o/i) - 

  64.0% of Longs (from 51.9%), 37.9% of Shorts (vs 39.1%), balance plus 26.1 (vs plus 22.8)

 Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 

  24.8% of Longs (from 26.4%), 38.5% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 13.7 (vs minus 11.0)   

  Small Specs (17.4% of total) - 

  11.2% of Longs (from 11.7%), 23.6% of Shorts (vs 23.5%), balance minus 12.4 (vs minus 11.8) 
 

Not much change, with holidays interrupting decision-making.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 106538, spreads 1118 (1.0%). Closing price Dec 30th 90.29

Nett differences:  Commercials -63413 (from -61327)  Large Specs +48833 (from +47932)
                              Small Specs +14580 (from +13395)

Proportions -

Commercials (37.5% of total o/i) - 7.4% of Longs (from 9.6%), 67.5% of Shorts (vs 75.5%), balance minus 60.1 (vs minus 65.9)

Large Specs (54.2% of total) - 77.4% of Longs (from 74.7%), 31.1% of Shorts (vs 23.2%), balance plus 46.3 (vs plus 51.5) 

 Small Specs (8.3% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 15.7%), 1.4% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 
 13.8 (vs plus 14.4)

Even the Large Specs seem undecided, adding considerably to both longs and (more particularly) shorts ...