CFTC COT data of Jan 27th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 185350, spreads 1916 (1.0%).  Closing price Jan 27th 1.5190 

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +66219 (from +66280)  Large Specs -45340 (from -45708)

                              Small Specs -20879 (from -20572)   

  Proportions:

 Commercials (52.4% of total o/i) - 

  70.4% of Longs (from 71.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 34.7%), balance plus 36.1 (vs plus 36.8)

 Large Specs (33.4% of total) - 

  21.1% of Longs (from 19.6%), 45.8% of Shorts (vs 45.0%), balance minus 24.7 (vs minus 25.4)   

  Small Specs (14.2% of total) - 

  8.5% of Longs (from 8.9%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 20.3%), balance minus 11.4 (vs minus 11.4) 
 

Really not enough change to give any particular signal/s - with values almost unchanged for 4 weeks, thats not surprising. Commercials are still expecting the Pound to rise.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 129495, spreads 1790 (1.4%). Closing price Jan 27th 94.26

Nett differences:  Commercials -90114 (from -89122)  Large Specs +70673 (from +73168)
                              Small Specs +19441 (from +15954)

Proportions -

Commercials (45.5% of total o/i) - 10.2% of Longs (from 10.4%), 80.8% of Shorts (vs 79.6%), balance minus 70.6 (vs minus 69.2)

Large Specs (44.6% of total) - 72.2% of Longs (from 75.4%), 16.9% of Shorts (vs 18.6%), balance plus 55.3 (vs plus 56.8) 

 
 Small Specs (9.9% of total) - 17.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 2.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus
  15.3 (vs plus 12.4) 

Commercials now have their biggest short position (both nett and proportionate) for some time - but they have been wrong before ...  On the other hand, Small Commercials have a sizeable long position - but they are sometimes right. We'll wait for more guidance ...