COT data of Nov 4th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 144215, spreads 4594 (3.2%).  Closing price Nov 4th 1.6000
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +19005 (from +113879)  Large Specs -7462 (from -6247)  
                              Small Specs -11543 (from -7632)
 Proportions:

Commercials (50.2% of total o/i) -

57.0% of Longs (from 55.8%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.6%), balance plus 13.6 (vs plus 10.2)

Large Specs (33.7% of total) - 

31.0% of Longs (from 29.9%), 36.3% of Shorts (vs 34.5%), balance minus 5.3 (vs minus 4.6)

Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 

12.0% of Longs (from 14.3%), 20.3% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 8.3 (vs minus 5.6) 

 

Spreads are up, which often means a lessening of firm views. Total o/i is also higher.   

Commercials have added to longs and reduced shorts, while (just) holding on to their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved significantly longer. Large Specs have added to both longs and shorts, but remain short overall. Small Specs have gone shorter, still suggesting that downside scope may be limited.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 92157, spreads 1970 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 4th 87.04

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -54445 (from -59136)  Large Specs +42765 (from +50306)  
                              Small Specs +11680 (from +8830)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.2% of total o/i) - 5.0% of Longs (from 5.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 81.1%), balance minus 60.4 (vs minus 76.7)

Large Specs (57.0% of total) - 80.7% of Longs (from 81.1%), 33.3% of Shorts (vs 15.9%), balance plus 47.4 (vs plus 65.2) 

Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.3% of Longs (from 13.3%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 13.0 (vs plus 11.5) 

Total open interest is sharply higher. Commercials have cut their shorts, and added slightly to longs, while Large Specs have added to both longs and (particularly) shorts, with their nett long much reduced. Time for consolidation?