COT data of Nov 25th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

CFTC will not be publishing COT figures until Monday (due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday),
so figures and comments will be unavailable until Tuesday or Wednesday ...

COT data of Nov 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 166966, spreads 4448 (2.7%).  Closing price Nov 18th 1.5630

 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +36573 (from +23677)  Large Specs -22829 (from -12891)  
                              Small Specs -13744 (from -10786)
 Proportions:

Commercials (49.7% of total o/i) -

61.0% of Longs (from 59.2%), 38.5% of Shorts (vs 43.1%), balance plus 22.5 (vs plus 16.1)

Large Specs (33.4% of total) - 

26.4% of Longs (from 27.7%), 40.4% of Shorts (vs 36.5%), balance minus 14.0 (vs minus 8.8)

Small Specs (16.9% of total) - 

12.6% of Longs (from 13.1%), 21.1% of Shorts (vs 20.4%), balance minus 8.5 (vs minus 7.3) 

 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 90731, spreads 1941 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 18th 87.63

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -50739 (from -53095)  Large Specs +39356 (from +41625)  
                              Small Specs +11383 (from +11470)

Proportions - 

Commercials (37.9% of total o/i) - 9.4% of Longs (from 6.7%), 66.5% of Shorts (vs 63.6%), balance minus 57.1 (vs minus 56.9)

Large Specs (54.3% of total) - 76.4% of Longs (from 75.5%), 32.1% of Shorts (vs 30.9%), balance plus 44.3 (vs plus 44.6) 

Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 17.8%), 1.4% of Shorts (vs 5.5%), balance plus 12.8 (vs plus 12.3) 

COT data of Nov 11th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 151660, spreads 4681 (3.1%).  Closing price Nov 11th 1.5810
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +23677 (from +19005)  Large Specs -12891 (from -7462)  
                              Small Specs -10786 (from -11543)
 Proportions:

Commercials (51.1% of total o/i) -

59.2% of Longs (from 57.0%), 43.1% of Shorts (vs 43.4%), balance plus 16.1 (vs plus 13.6)

Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 

27.7% of Longs (from 31.0%), 36.5% of Shorts (vs 36.3%), balance minus 8.8 (vs minus 5.3)

Small Specs (16.8% of total) - 

13.1% of Longs (from 12.0%), 20.4% of Shorts (vs 20.3%), balance minus 7.3 (vs minus 8.3) 

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 95206, spreads 1902 (2.0%). Closing price Nov 11th 87.61

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -53095 (from -54445)  Large Specs +41625 (from +42765)  
                              Small Specs +11470 (from +11680)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.1% of total o/i) - 6.7% of Longs (from 5.0%), 75.5% of Shorts (vs 80.7%), balance minus 56.9 (vs minus 60.4)

Large Specs (53.2% of total) - 75.5% of Longs (from 80.7%), 30.9% of Shorts (vs 33.3%), balance plus 44.6 (vs plus 47.4) 

Small Specs (11.7% of total) - 17.8% of Longs (from 14.3%), 5.5% of Shorts (vs 1.3%), balance plus 12.3 (vs plus 13.0) 

COT data of Nov 11th & 18th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

 ... comments will not be posted until after Nov 25th ....

COT data of Nov 4th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 144215, spreads 4594 (3.2%).  Closing price Nov 4th 1.6000
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +19005 (from +113879)  Large Specs -7462 (from -6247)  
                              Small Specs -11543 (from -7632)
 Proportions:

Commercials (50.2% of total o/i) -

57.0% of Longs (from 55.8%), 43.4% of Shorts (vs 45.6%), balance plus 13.6 (vs plus 10.2)

Large Specs (33.7% of total) - 

31.0% of Longs (from 29.9%), 36.3% of Shorts (vs 34.5%), balance minus 5.3 (vs minus 4.6)

Small Specs (16.1% of total) - 

12.0% of Longs (from 14.3%), 20.3% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance minus 8.3 (vs minus 5.6) 

 

Spreads are up, which often means a lessening of firm views. Total o/i is also higher.   

Commercials have added to longs and reduced shorts, while (just) holding on to their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved significantly longer. Large Specs have added to both longs and shorts, but remain short overall. Small Specs have gone shorter, still suggesting that downside scope may be limited.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 92157, spreads 1970 (2.1%). Closing price Nov 4th 87.04

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -54445 (from -59136)  Large Specs +42765 (from +50306)  
                              Small Specs +11680 (from +8830)

Proportions - 

Commercials (35.2% of total o/i) - 5.0% of Longs (from 5.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 81.1%), balance minus 60.4 (vs minus 76.7)

Large Specs (57.0% of total) - 80.7% of Longs (from 81.1%), 33.3% of Shorts (vs 15.9%), balance plus 47.4 (vs plus 65.2) 

Small Specs (7.8% of total) - 14.3% of Longs (from 13.3%), 1.3% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 13.0 (vs plus 11.5) 

Total open interest is sharply higher. Commercials have cut their shorts, and added slightly to longs, while Large Specs have added to both longs and (particularly) shorts, with their nett long much reduced. Time for consolidation? 

COT data of Oct 28th 2014 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 138661, spreads 2664 (1.9%).  Closing price Oct 28th 1.6130
 
Nett differences:  Commercials  +13879 (from +16808)  Large Specs -6247 (from -4485)
                              Small Specs -7632 (from -12323)
 Proportions:

Commercials (50.7% of total o/i) -

55.8% of Longs (from 59.5%), 45.6% of Shorts (vs 46.9%), balance plus 10.2 (vs plus 12.6)

Large Specs (32.2% of total) - 

29.9% of Longs (from 27.4%), 34.5% of Shorts (vs 30.8%), balance minus 4.6 (vs minus 3.4)

Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 

14.3% of Longs (from 13.1%), 19.9% of Shorts (vs 22.3%), balance minus 5.6 (vs minus 9.2) 

 

  Commercials have reduced both longs and shorts, retaining (just) their normal majority share of total open interest; on balance, they have moved slightly less long. Large Specs have increased all positions, going shorter overall. Small Specs added to longs and reduced shorts; much higher prices now seem less likely.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 79369, spreads 2261 (2.8%). Closing price Oct 28th 85.42

  

Nett differences:  Commercials -58885 (from -58564)  Large Specs +50226 (from +48966)
                              Small Specs +8659 (from +9598)

Proportions - 

Commercials (43.9% of total o/i) - 5.6% of Longs (from 6.8%), 82.3% of Shorts (vs 82.1%), balance minus 76.7 (vs minus 75.3)

Large Specs (48.5% of total) - 81.1% of Longs (from 80.0%), 15.9% of Shorts (vs 15.8%), balance plus 65.2 (vs plus 64.2) 

Small Specs (7.6% of total) - 13.3% of Longs (from 13.2%), 1.8% of Shorts (vs 2.1%), balance plus 11.5 (vs plus 11.1) 

  Total open interest is lower again, with Commercials (proportionately) once more reducing longs and adding to shorts - still suggesting lower values to come, even though none of this week's changes look significant.