COT data of Aug 27th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  149328; spreads 3858 (= 2.6%). Closing price on Aug 27th: 1.5545

Nett differences:

Commercials +43762 (from +40931)  Large Specs -38226 (from -39522).  Small Specs -5536 (from -1409).

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (47.4% of total o/i) - 62.4% of Longs, 32.3% of Shorts, balance plus 30.1

Large Specs (33.8% of total) - 20.6% of Longs, 46.9% of Shorts, balance minus 26.3

Small Specs (18.8% of total) - 17.0% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 3.8
 
Prices have fallen, but only slightly. Commercials added to longs, but added slightly more to shorts, moving towards a more normal share of the (increased) total open interest. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts, but not to a significant extent. These figures suggest, if anything, that the current minor downtrend should continue.

COT data of Aug 20th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  138505; spreads 3772 (= 2.7%). Closing price on Aug 20th: 1.5670

Nett differences:

Commercials +40931 (from +55820)  Large Specs -39522 (from -46521).  Small Specs -1409 (from -9299).

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (46.1% of total o/i) - 61.3% of Longs, 30.9% of Shorts, balance plus 30.4

Large Specs (34.7% of total) - 20.0% of Longs, 49.3% of Shorts, balance minus 29.3

Small Specs (19.2% of total) - 18.7% of Longs, 19.8% of Shorts, balance minus 1.1
 
Prices moved higher initially, but fell after reaching a technical target at 1.5700 (actual high was around 1.5720). Small Specs were sucked in, adding to longs while cutting a few shorts, while Commercials liquidated longs on the rally (although they didn't add to shorts). The last time Small Specs reduced shorts to this sort of level (both outright, and proportionately), on June 18th, prices started falling, and there seems no reason why values should not fall from here this time also.

COT data of Aug 13th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  145126; spreads 3314 (= 2.3%). 

Nett differences:

Commercials +55820 (from +56196)  Large Specs -46521 (from -46033).  Small Specs -9299 (from -10163). 

Proportions:  

Commercials (50.8% of total o/i) - 70.5% of Longs, 31.1% of Shorts, balance plus 39.4

Large Specs (32.1% of total) - 15.7% of Longs, 48.5% of Shorts, balance minus 32.8

Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 13.8% of Longs, 20.4% of Shorts, balance minus 6.6
 
Prices once again moved erratically higher, but there was extremely little change in any of the running positions - with Commercials holding the same nett balance of plus 39.4, and Small Specs adding to longs and reducing shorts, both to a tiny extent (thus overall reducing their nett shorts marginally), there is little to say except that we remain less than positive on the Pound.

COT data of Aug 6th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  145387; spreads 2929 (= 2.0%). 

Nett differences:

Commercials +56196 (from +62370)  Large Specs -46033 (from -49463).  Small Specs -10163 (from -12907). 

Proportions:  

Commercials (51.2% of total o/i) - 70.9% of Longs, 31.5% of Shorts, balance plus 39.4

Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 15.5% of Longs, 47.8% of Shorts, balance minus 32.3

Small Specs (17.1% of total) - 13.6% of Longs, 20.7% of Shorts, balance minus 7.1
 
Prices moved erratically higher, but the Open Position changes by last Tuesday suggest that the current rally may not have much further to go - Small Specs (our normally contrarian indicator) have added to longs,  while the previous week they had been reducing shorts, and Commercials (who we tend to follow in this market) have reduced longs considerably while also adding slightly to shorts. On this basis, we are becoming less positive on the Pound.

COT data of July 30th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  146335; spreads 3037 (= 2.1%).  

Nett differences:

Commercials +62370 (from +66356).  Large Specs -49463 (from -49653).  Small Specs -12907 (from -16703). 

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.3% of total o/i) - 74.1% of Longs, 30.6% of Shorts, balance plus 43.5

Large Specs (31.3% of total) - 14.1% of Longs, 48.6% of Shorts, balance minus 34.5

Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 11.8% of Longs, 20.8% of Shorts, balance minus 9.0
 
Prices by last Tuesday's close had dropped to 1.5240, and have remained erratic since then, with the latest close around 1.53 (after 1.51). With very little change showing in most holdings - the decline in Small Specs' shorts being probably the most significant - and with Commercials remaining quite long, we can only repeat last week's comment - with no excesses showing, these figures suggest the Pound should remain steady, but unexcitingly so - in the medium term, that is - in the short term, the spread of positions held suggests continued choppy moves.