CFTC COT data of May 26th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 176797, spreads 1871 (1.1%).  Closing price May 26th 1.5385

 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +26865 (from +23388)  Large Specs -25539 (from -23362)
                              Small Specs -1326 (from -26)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.7% of total o/i) - 

  67.4% of Longs (from 64.7%), 52.0% of Shorts (from 51.8%), balance plus 15.4 (from plus 12.9)

 Large Specs (27.1% of total) - 

   19.8% of Longs (from 22.7%), 34.4% of Shorts (from 35.6%), balance minus 14.6 (from minus 12.9) 

  Small Specs (13.2% of total) - 

  12.8% of Longs (from 12.6%), 13.6% of Shorts (from 12.6%), balance minus 0.8 (from square)

 On a nett basis, all positions were increased. On a proportional basis, there was a reversion to the previous pattern - Commercials went slightly longer on the dip, while Large Specs went slightly shorter (following the trend, as usual). Small Specs went marginally short (from square), but are still a comparatively insignificant factor. On this basis, major weakness from here looks unlikely.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 103211, spreads 2916 (2.8%). Closing price May 26th 97.40

Nett differences:  Commercials -65900 (from -62596)  Large Specs +52296 (from +53483)
                              Small Specs +13604 (from +9113)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.3% of total o/i) - 14.5% of Longs (from 16.7%), 80.2% of Shorts (vs 82.9%), balance minus 65.7 (vs minus 66.2)

 Large Specs (43.4% of total) - 69.5% of Longs (from 68.1%), 17.3% of Shorts (vs 11.5%), balance plus 52.2 (vs plus 56.6) 

  Small Specs (9.3% of total) - 16.0% of Longs (from 15.2%), 2.5% of Shorts (vs 5.6%), balance plus 13.5

 (vs plus 9.6)
 
 Commercials reduced longs and added to shorts, while Large Specs added to longs and - more aggressively - to shorts. Small Specs also added to longs, but reduced their already small short position. It appears that the current minor rally may end soon.

CFTC COT data of May 19th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 182607, spreads 1093 (0.6%).  Closing price May 19th 1.5495

 

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +23388 )from +38987)  Large Specs -23362 (from -30769)
                              Small Specs -26 (from -8218)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.3% of total o/i) - 

  64.7% of Longs (from 68.1%), 51.8% of Shorts (vs 546.8%), balance plus 12.9 (vs plus 21.3)

 Large Specs (29.1% of total) - 

   22.7% of Longs (from 20.6%), 35.6% of Shorts (vs 37.4%), balance minus 12.9 (vs minus 16.8) 

  Small Specs (12.6% of total) - 

  12.6% of Longs (from 11.3%), 12.6% of Shorts (vs 15.8%), balance square (vs minus 4.5)

 Commercials were quick to reduce longs once more, while adding considerably to shorts - seems like they needed only minor encouragement to get back to their recently normal "slightly nett long" position - their nett balance is now the lowest since end Oct last year. Large Specs reduced shorts and added to longs, both outright and proportionately, and Small Specs did the same. With the dust now settling, it seems Commercials (whose opinion we trust in the long run) are not very bullish, while Small Specs (whose opinion we prefer to 'fade') are completely undecided - they have their smallest share of the total open interest since last September.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 98050, spreads 3516 (3.6%). Closing price May 19th 95.36

Nett differences:  Commercials -62596 (from -66103)  Large Specs +53483 (from +55336)
                              Small Specs +9113 (from +10767)

Proportions -

 Commercials (49.8% of total o/i) - 16.7% of Longs (from 14.0%), 82.9% of Shorts (vs 81.8%), balance minus 66.2 (vs minus 67.8)

 Large Specs (39.8% of total) - 68.1% of Longs (from 69.1%), 11.5% of Shorts (vs 12.3%), balance plus 56.6 (vs plus 56.8) 

  Small Specs (10.4% of total) - 15.2% of Longs (from 16.9%), 5.6% of Shorts (vs 5.9%), balance plus 9.6

 (vs plus 11.0)
 
 Commercials yet again added to longs and reduced shorts (slightly), once more taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year. Large Specs continued to cut both longs and shorts, staying nett long, while Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts. Their overall nett long has become even smaller. Further minor strength seems likely.

CFTC COT data of May 12th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 183586, spreads 909 (0.5%).  Closing price May 12th 1.5670 

  

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +38987 (from +30343)  Large Specs -30769 (from -24758)
                              Small Specs -8218 (from -5585)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.5% of total o/i) - 

  68.1% of Longs (from 68.3%), 46.8% of Shorts (vs 50.7%), balance plus 21.3 (vs plus 17.6)

 Large Specs (29.0% of total) - 

   20.6% of Longs (from 19.9%), 37.4% of Shorts (vs 34.3%), balance minus 16.8 (vs minus 14.4) 

  Small Specs (13.5% of total) - 

  11.3% of Longs (from 11.8%), 15.8% of Shorts (vs 15.0%), balance minus 4.5 (vs minus 3.2)

 Commercials started adding to longs again, while reducing shorts, but not to a massive extent. Large Specs added to shorts, both outright and proportionately, and Small Specs did the same. There still seems to be a large amount of uncertainty around - we'll wait for the dust to settle.

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 99697, spreads 2266 (2.3%). Closing price May 5th 94.65
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -66103 (from -70375)  Large Specs +55336 (from +58927)
                              Small Specs +10767 (from +11448)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.9% of total o/i) - 14.0% of Longs (from 11.6%), 81.8% of Shorts (vs 82.0%), balance minus 67.8 (vs minus 70.4)

 Large Specs (40.7% of total) - 69.1% of Longs (from 72.7%), 12.3% of Shorts (vs 13.8%), balance plus 56.8 (vs plus 58.9) 

  Small Specs (11.4% of total) - 16.9% of Longs (from 15.7%), 5.9% of Shorts (vs 4.2%), balance plus 11.0

 (vs plus 11.5)
 
 Commercials once again added to longs and reduced shorts (slightly), once more taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year. Large Specs cut both longs and shorts, staying nett long, while Small Specs added slightly to longs but more vigorously to shorts - their overall nett long remains quite small. We're still not particularly bearish.

CFTC COT data of May 5th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 173468, spreads 1441 (0.8%).  Closing price May 5th 1.5170 (close on May 8th 1.5450, after high 1.5520)

  

 Nett differences:  Commercials  +30343 (from +44758)  Large Specs -24758 (from -34128)
                              Small Specs -5585 (from -10630)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (59.5% of total o/i) - 

  68.3% of Longs (from 69.5%), 50.7% of Shorts (vs 43.2%), balance plus 17.6 (vs plus 26.3)

 Large Specs (27.1% of total) - 

   19.9% of Longs (from 19.5%), 34.3% of Shorts (vs 39.6%), balance minus 14.4 (vs minus 20.1) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  11.8% of Longs (from 11.0%), 15.0% of Shorts (vs 17.2%), balance minus 3.2 (vs minus 6.2)

 Commercials added considerably to shorts, both on a nett and a proportionate basis, presumably fearing the worst from the election results. In the event however, the surprise win by the Tories vindicated the Large Specs, who had cut their shorts considerably. The change in next week's figures should give a good idea of longer term views about the new British political world.

 
Dollar Index: Total o/i 102100, spreads 2117 (2.1%). Closing price May 5th 95.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -70375 (from -79757)  Large Specs +58927 (from +64584)
                              Small Specs +11448 (from +15173)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.8% of total o/i) - 11.6% of Longs (from 7.7%), 82.0% of Shorts (vs 80.7%), balance minus 70.4 (vs minus 73.0)

 Large Specs (43.2% of total) - 72.7% of Longs (from 71.5%), 13.8% of Shorts (vs 12.4%), balance plus 58.9 (vs plus 59.1) 

  Small Specs (10.0% of total) - 15.7% of Longs (from 20.8%), 4.2% of Shorts (vs 6.9%), balance plus 11.5

 (vs plus 13.9)
 
 Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, taking their nett short to the lowest figure this year - probably a constructive sign (although maybe not immediately - COT is not necessarily good at giving short-term signals). Small Specs reduced longs more than shorts, putting them down to a comparatively small nett long - also probably a constructive sign.

CFTC COT data of Apr 28th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 171698, spreads 1482 (0.9%).  Closing price Apr 28th 1.5335

  
 Nett differences:  Commercials  +44758 (from +47497)  Large Specs -34128 (from -29281)
                              Small Specs -10630 (from -18216)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (56.3% of total o/i) - 

  69.5% of Longs (from 71.8%), 43.2% of Shorts (vs 44.4%), balance plus 26.3 (vs plus 27.4)

 Large Specs (29.6% of total) - 

   19.5% of Longs (from 20.0%), 39.6% of Shorts (vs 36.9%), balance minus 20.1 (vs minus 16.9) 

  Small Specs (14.1% of total) - 

  11.0% of Longs (from 8.2%), 17.2% of Shorts (vs 18.7%), balance minus 6.2 (vs minus 10.5)

 Total o/i fell again in most categories, the exceptions being Large Specs (who added to shorts) and Small Specs (who added to longs) - in the short term, this is not constructive. Commercials took advantage of the rally to liquidate longs, while Large Specs added to shorts. The last time Small Specs reduced their nett short so noticeably (in early March), prices promptly started falling ...

Dollar Index: Total o/i 112648, spreads 3408 (3.0%). Closing price Apr 28th 986.20
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -79757 (from -88374)  Large Specs +64584 (from +71721)
                              Small Specs +15173 (from +16653)

Proportions -

 Commercials (44.1% of total o/i) - 7.7% of Longs (from 7.6%), 80.7% of Shorts (vs 85.6%), balance minus 73.0 (vs minus 78.0)

 Large Specs (42.0% of total) - 71.5% of Longs (from 75.8%), 12.4% of Shorts (vs 12.5%), balance plus 59.1 (vs plus 63.3) 

  Small Specs (13.9% of total) - 20.8% of Longs (from 16.6%), 6.9% of Shorts (vs 1.9%), balance plus 13.9

 (vs plus 14.7)
 
  Big changes this week, with Commercials taking advantage of the dip to cover shorts, and Large Specs reducing longs to their lowest nett level since the start of the year. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, and now have an unusually large share of the total o/i - they remain nett long - we remain nett bearish (in the short term).

CFTC COT data of Apr 21st 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 175066, spreads 1293 (0.7%).  Closing price Apr 21st 1.4925

  Nett differences:  Commercials  +47497 (from +57723)  Large Specs -29281 (from -36045)
                              Small Specs -18216 (from -21678)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (58.1% of total o/i) - 

  71.8% of Longs (from 73.2%), 44.4% of Shorts (vs 42.3%), balance plus 27.4 (vs plus 30.9)

 Large Specs (28.5% of total) - 

   20.0% of Longs (from 18.2%), 36.9% of Shorts (vs 37.5%), balance minus 16.9 (vs minus 19.3) 

  Small Specs (13.4% of total) - 

  8.2% of Longs (from 8.6%), 18.7% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance minus 10.5 (vs minus 11.6)

 Total o/i fell, with reductions in all categories. Commercials (who have a big share of the open interest at present) reduced longs more than shorts, showing less confidence in stronger prices from here, whereas Large Specs cut their shorts on the rally and added slightly to longs. Small Specs continue to play a minor role, and the impending General Election seems to remain an inhibiting influence.

Dollar Index: Total o/i 115918, spreads 2570 (2.2%). Closing price Apr 21st 98.21
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -88374 (from -90485)  Large Specs +71721 (from +76407)
                              Small Specs +16653 (from +14078)

Proportions -

 Commercials (46.6% of total o/i) - 7.6% of Longs (from 8.4%), 85.6% of Shorts (vs 85.8%), balance minus 78.0 (vs minus 77.4)

 Large Specs (44.2% of total) - 75.8% of Longs (from 77.4%), 12.5% of Shorts (vs 12.0%), balance plus 63.3 (vs plus 65.4) 

  Small Specs (9.2% of total) - 16.6% of Longs (from 14.2%), 1.9% of Shorts (vs 2.2%), balance plus 14.7

 (vs plus 12.0)
 
  Commercials proportionately reduced longs more than shorts, but they showed little change on balance. Large Specs acted similarly, leaving the Small Specs to take up the longs - not usually a good sign for the bulls.

CFTC COT data of Apr 14th 2015 - British Pound [BP], Dollar Index [DX]

British Pounds - Total o/i 189513, spreads 2362 (1.2%).  Closing price Apr 14th 1.4780

 
  Nett differences:  Commercials  +57723 (from +51598)  Large Specs -36045 (from -343013)
                              Small Specs -21678 (from -17297)

  Proportions:

 Commercials (57.7% of total o/i) - 

  73.2% of Longs (from 71.2%), 42.3% of Shorts (vs 43.0%), balance plus 30.9 (vs plus 28.2)

 Large Specs (27.8% of total) - 

   18.2% of Longs (from 20.5%), 37.5% of Shorts (vs 39.3%), balance minus 19.3 (vs minus 18.8) 

  Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 

  8.6% of Longs (from 8.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 17.7%), balance minus 11.6 (vs minus 9.4)

 Total o/i was higher again, but with prices continuing their recent sideways path, there is still little guidance to be found in these figures. It is noticeable however that Small Specs have been adding to shorts (= bearish), while Commercials have been replacing their longs (= longer-term bullish). Large Specs seem undecided, reducing both longs and shorts.

 

Dollar Index: Total o/i 119021, spreads 2103 (1.8%). Closing price Apr 14th 98.94
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -90485 (from -89822)  Large Specs +76407 (from +72806)
                              Small Specs +14078 (from +17016)

Proportions -

 Commercials (47.1% of total o/i) - 8.4% of Longs (from 8.0%), 85.8% of Shorts (vs 88.7%), balance minus 77.4 (vs minus 80.7)

 Large Specs (44.7% of total) - 77.4% of Longs (from 74.9%), 12.0% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 65.4 (unchanged) 

  Small Specs (8.2% of total) - 14.2% of Longs (from 17.1%), 2.2% of Shorts (vs 1.8%), balance plus 12.0

 (vs plus 15.3)
   
  Large Specs added to both longs and shorts, leaving their proportionate balance unchanged, although on a nett basis they showed as going longer. Commercials proportionately were a little less short, while Small Specs were a little less long - both suggesting higher levels to come.