COT data of July 22nd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 241155, spreads 3419 (1.4%).  Closing price July 22nd 1.7065

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -44883 (from -60291)  Large Specs +27497 (from +38770)  Small Specs +17386 (from +21521)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (62.8% of total o/i) -

53.3% of Longs (from 48.9%), 72.2% of Shorts (vs 72.8%), balance minus 18.9 (vs minus 23.9)

Large Specs (24.4% of total) -

30.2% of Longs (from 34.1%), 18.6% of Shorts (vs 18.7%), balance plus 11.6 (vs plus 15.4)

Small Specs (12.8% of total) -

16.5% of Longs (from 17.0%), 9.2% of Shorts (vs 8.5%), balance plus 7.3 (vs plus 8.5) 

 

Considerable change this week - Commercials added to longs, while Large Specs reduced theirs. Small  Specs reduced longs a litle, and added to shorts, but only marginally in both cases. It seems that (if one follows the lead of the Commercials) some further softening may be seen, but not to any major extent. 

[Dollar Index showed no major change from the previous week; Commercials still short, although once again slightly less so than previously (balance now minus 44.7): Specs long (balances - Large plus 33.8, Small plus 10.9). Seems the recent bull trend is likely to continue.] 

COT data of July 15th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 255115, spreads 2613 (1.0%).  Closing price July 15th 1.7145

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -60291 (from -62309)  Large Specs +38770 (from +41639)  Small Specs +21521 (from +20670)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (60.9% of total o/i) -

48.9% of Longs (from 49.0%), 72.8% of Shorts (vs 73.7%), balance minus 23.9 (vs minus 24.7)

Large Specs (26.4% of total) -

34.1% of Longs (from 34.3%), 18.7% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance plus 15.4 (vs plus 16.5)

Small Specs (12.7% of total) -

17.0% of Longs (from 16.7%), 8.5% of Shorts (vs 8.5%), balance plus 8.5 (vs plus 8.2) 

 

Not much change overall; Commercials reduced shorts, while Large Specs added to theirs. Small  Specs added very slightly to longs, while their shorts remained exactly unchanged. We can only repeat last week's comment - seems like Commercials may be giving up on their long-term bear view. 

[Dollar Index also remained basically unchanged from the previous week; Commercials short, although slightly less so than previously (balance now minus 46.8): Specs long (balances - Large plus 34.4, Small plus 12.4). Seems the recent bull trend is likely to continue.]

COT data of July 8th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 254788, spreads 2558 (1.0%).  Closing price July 8th 1.7130

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -62309 (from -75297)  Large Specs +41639 (from +56412)  Small Specs +20670 (from +18885)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (61.3% of total o/i) -

49.0% of Longs (from 44.2%), 73.7% of Shorts (vs 73.9%), balance minus 24.7 (vs minus 29.7)

Large Specs (26.1% of total) -

34.3% of Longs (from 39.4%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 17.2%), balance plus 16.5 (vs plus 22.2)

Small Specs (12.6% of total) -

16.7% of Longs (from 16.4%), 8.5% of Shorts (vs 8.9%), balance plus 8.2 (vs plus 7.5) 

 

Commercials added to longs considerably, and reduced shorts (although not by much, proportionately); Large Specs on the other hand reduced longs, while also leaving shorts not much changed. Small  Specs added to longs and reduced shorts. Seems like Commercials may be giving up on their long-term bear view. 

COT data of July 1st 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 255911, spreads 2455 (1.0%).  Closing price July 1st 1.7150

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -75297 (from -68896)  Large Specs +56412 (from +49751)  Small Specs +18885 (from +19145)   

 

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.1% of total o/i) -

44.2% of Longs (from 45.6%), 73.9% of Shorts (vs 72.9%), balance minus 29.7 (vs minus 27.3)

Large Specs (28.3% of total) -

39.4% of Longs (from 38.9%), 17.2% of Shorts (vs 19.2%), balance plus 22.2 (vs plus 19.7)

Small Specs (12.6% of total) -

16.4% of Longs (from 15.5%), 8.9% of Shorts (vs 7.9%), balance plus 7.5 (vs plus 7.6) 

 

Commercials reduced longs, added to shorts; Large Specs added to longs, and reduced shorts (considerably).Small  Specs added to both longs and shorts, leaving their balance around unchanged. Our view remains unchanged (with apologies for the delay in expressing it). 

COT data of July 1st 2014 - British Pound [BP] - delayed

Please note, owing to the July 4th holiday in the US, the CFTC will not publish COT figures until Monday July 7th.   Breakdown and comment will be published on Tuesday July 8th ...

COT data of June 24th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

 

 

British Pounds - Total o/i 254369, spreads 2077 (0.8%).  Closing price June 24th 1.6985

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -68896 (from -72946)  Large Specs +49751 (from +52596)  Small Specs +19145 (from +20350)   

 

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.3% of total o/i) -

45.6% of Longs (from 43.3%), 72.9% of Shorts (vs 72.7%), balance minus 27.3 (vs minus 29.4)

Large Specs (29.0% of total) -

38.9% of Longs (from 40.5%), 19.2% of Shorts (vs 19.3%), balance plus 19.7 (vs plus 21.2)

Small Specs (11.7% of total) -

15.5% of Longs (from 16.2%), 7.9% of Shorts (vs 8.0%), balance plus 7.6 (vs plus 8.2) 

 

Commercials have added to both longs and shorts, but the main change has been in their increased longs - on balance, they still remain noticeably nett short however. Both Large and Small Specs have reduced their commitments, but remain quite long on balance. We continue to look for reasons to short the Pound. 

(Open positions in the Dollar Index have not changed much since the previous week's major changes, with Commercials remaining very short. It seems they expect the recent downtrend to continue.) 

COT data of June 17th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 250231, spreads 1964 (0.8%).  Closing price June 17th 1.6960 

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -72946 (from -51429)  Large Specs +52596 (from +35842)  Small Specs +20350 (from +15587)   

 

Proportions:   

Commercials (58.0% of total o/i) -

43.3% of Longs (from 51.0%), 72.7% of Shorts (vs 71.8%), balance minus 29.4 (vs minus 20.8)

Large Specs (29.9% of total) -

40.5% of Longs (from 34.4%), 19.3% of Shorts (vs 19.9%), balance plus 21.2 (vs plus 14.5)

Small Specs (12.1% of total) -

16.2% of Longs (from 14.6%), 8.0% of Shorts (vs 8.3%), balance plus 8.2 (vs plus 6.3) 

 

Commercials have cut longs and added to shorts considerably, on both an outright and a proportional basis, while both Large and Small Specs have increased longs while reducing shorts. Based on these figures, it's time to look for reasons to short the Pound. 

(Open positions in the Dollar Index have changed massively, with Commercials shorting aggressively, and Large Specs cutting shorts as well as adding to longs. Commercials now hold over 32% of the total open position, while Large Specs have come down from 75% to only just over 60%. It seems that Commercials have firmed up their view.)

 

(Bear in mind that the Dollar Index is based primarily [57.6%] on the Euro, and only 11.9% on Sterling)