COT data of May 20th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237637, spreads 3255 (1.4%).  Closing price May 20th 1.6835

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -49791 (from -54328)  Large Specs +33090 (from +31755)  

  Small Specs +16701 (from +22573)

Proportions:   

Commercials (61.0% of total o/i) - 

50.4% of Longs (from 50.3%), 71.6% of Shorts (vs 74.2%), balance minus 21.2 (vs minus 23.9)

Large Specs (27.1% of total) -

34.1% of Longs (from 31.3%), 20.0% of Shorts (vs 17.3%), balance plus 14.1 (vs plus 14.0)

Small Specs (11.9% of total) -

15.5% of Longs (from 18.4%), 8.4% of Shorts (vs 8.5%), balance plus 7.1 (vs plus 9.9) 

 

Over the last 3 weeks, it is noticeable that Small Specs were at their longest (both outright and proportionately) as prices reached their highs - they remain quite long, so contrarians will remain unfriendly to the Pound on that basis. However, Commercials have been reducing their overall shorts while Large Specs have reduced their overall longs (although adding to them slightly in the latest week) - it appears that any downmove is likely to be limited in scope.

COT data of May 13th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 230333, spreads 3098 (1.3%).  Closing price May 13th 1.6830

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -54328 (from -64295)  Large Specs +31755 (from +40646)  Small Specs +22573 (from +23649)

Proportions:   

Commercials (62.3% of total o/i) - 

50.3% of Longs (from 45.4%), 74.2% of Shorts (vs 72.4%), balance minus 23.9 (vs minus 27.0)

Large Specs (24.3% of total) -

31.3% of Longs (from 35.2%), 17.3% of Shorts (vs 18.1%), balance plus 14.0 (vs plus 17.1)

Small Specs (13.4% of total) -

18.4% of Longs (from 19.4%), 8.5% of Shorts (vs 9.5%), balance plus 9.9 (vs plus 9.9)

COT data of May 6th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 241264, spreads 2978 (1.2%).  Closing price May 6th 1.6975
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -64295 (from -65316)  Large Specs +40646 (from +44234)  Small Specs +23649 (from +21082)

Proportions:   

Commercials (58.9% of total o/i) - 

45.4% of Longs (from 45.5%), 72.4% of Shorts (vs 73.5%), balance minus 27.0 (vs minus 28.0)

Large Specs (26.6% of total) - 

35.2% of Longs (from 36.8%), 18.1% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance plus 17.1 (vs plus 19.0)

Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 

19.4% of Longs (from 17.7%), 9.5% of Shorts (vs 8.7%), balance plus 9.9 (vs plus 9.0)

COT data of Apr 29th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 236030, spreads 2669 (1.1%).  Closing price April 29th 1.6825
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -65316 (from -67077)  Large Specs +44234 (from +47800)  Small Specs +21082 (from +19277)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.5% of total o/i) - 

45.5% of Longs (from 44.9%, 73.5% of Shorts (vs 73.5%), balance minus 28.0 (vs minus 28.6)

Large Specs (27.3% of total) - 

36.8% of Longs (from 38.2%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 17.8%), balance plus 19.0 (vs plus 20.4)

Small Specs (13.2% of total) - 

17.7% of Longs (from 16.9%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 8.7%), balance plus 9.0 (vs plus 8.2)

Once again, very little change showing - indeed, all the 'proportionate' short positions are precisely the same as the previous week. Commercials again added slightly to longs, reducing their nett and proportionate short position, but this seems barely significant. Large Specs reduced longs, while Small Specs added to theirs.

The Dollar Index COT also showed little change overall, with Commercials (who only hold 16% of the total open interest) again reducing longs and adding to shorts, while Large Specs (with a 73% share of the market) came out a shade less short of the Dollar. Small Specs (who are not invariably wrong in this market) hold all the nett longs.

 

With some relief, we have to say that there will be no reports for the next 3 weeks - perhaps by month-end, BP positions will be providing more significant guidance.

COT data of Apr 22nd 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237055, spreads 2433 (1.0%).  Closing price April 22nd 1.6800
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -67077 (from -70626)  Large Specs +47800 (from +50598)  Small Specs +19277 (from +20028)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.2% of total o/i) - 

44.9% of Longs (from 43.9%, 73.5% of Shorts (vs 75.4%), balance minus 28.6 (vs minus 31.5)

Large Specs (28.0% of total) - 

38.2% of Longs (from 39.0%), 17.8% of Shorts (vs 16.4%), balance plus 20.4 (vs plus 22.6)

Small Specs (12.8% of total) - 

16.9% of Longs (from 17.1%), 8.7% of Shorts (vs 8.2%), balance plus 8.2 (vs plus 8.9)

A slight change in emphasis this week, as Commercials added to longs - both outright and proportionately - and reduced shorts (although only proportionately). They remain quite short on balance, however. Large and Small Specs remain long, but none of the figures show any extreme change in attitude.

 

The Dollar Index COT showed little change overall, although Large Specs (who have by far the biggest share of the market - 72.5% of the total open position) went shorter of the Dollar. For the time being, however, we still do not feel particularly bullish on the Pound. 

COT data of Apr 15th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 226688, spreads 2456 (1.1%).  Closing price April 15th 1.6725
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -70626 (from -62900)  Large Specs +50598 (from +46477)  Small Specs +20028 (from +16423)

Proportions:   

Commercials (59.6% of total o/i) - 

43.9% of Longs (from 43.0%, 75.4% of Shorts (vs 71.0%), balance minus 31.5 (vs minus 28.0)

Large Specs (27.7% of total) - 

39.0% of Longs (from 40.9%), 16.4% of Shorts (vs 20.2%), balance plus 22.6 (vs plus 20.7)

Small Specs (12.7% of total) - 

17.1% of Longs (from 16.1%), 8.2% of Shorts (vs 8.8%), balance plus 8.9 (vs plus 7.3)

 

Proportions have continued to move as previously, with Commercials going nett shorter (mainly by adding to short positions), Large Specs going nett longer (mainly by reducing shorts), and Small Specs also going longer (by adding to longs and reducing shorts).

 

The Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming rather less bearish on the Dollar, reducing their short positions while adding very slightly to longs. However, concentrating on the BP figures, and based simply on this week's COT, we still cannot feel particularly bullish on the Pound. 

COT data of Apr 8th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 226667, spreads 2324 (1.0%).  Closing price April 8th 1.6745
 

Nett differences:  Commercials -62900 (from -46568)  Large Specs +46477 (from +33572)  Small Specs +16423 (from +12996)

Proportions:   

Commercials (57.0% of total o/i) - 

43.0% of Longs (from 48.8%, 71.0% of Shorts (vs 71.1%), balance minus 28.0 (vs minus 22.3)

Large Specs (30.5% of total) - 

40.9% of Longs (from 36.3%), 20.2% of Shorts (vs 203%), balance plus 20.7 (vs plus 16.0)

Small Specs (12.5% of total) - 

16.1% of Longs (from 14.9%), 8.8% of Shorts (vs 8.6%), balance plus 7.3 (vs plus 6.3)

 

Commercials have again  reduced their longs, this time very considerably, and added to their shorts - even though not on a proportionate basis. They have moved to a noticeable nett short. Large Specs have moved considerably longer (following the trend), while adding very slightly to shorts. Small Specs have - on balance - added to longs.

 

Confusingly, the Dollar Index COT shows Commercials becoming outright bearish on the Dollar, moving from nett long to nett short. Nevertheless, sticking to just the BP figures (and bearing in mind that a large part of the Dollar Index consists of the Euro), we will stay with a bearish view for the Pound.