COT data of Jan 22nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 160820, but spreads were up once more, at 2153, increasing their proportion to around 1.3% - suggesting that uncertainty remains a factor in the market. 

 

Nett differences:

Commercials -23389 (from -46945).  Large Specs +17938 (from +28338).  Small Specs +5451 (from +18607). Small Specs show the smallest nett long since late August 2012, after which point the market started to firm.

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (51.4% of total o/i) - 44.1% of Longs, 58.8% of Shorts, balance minus 14.7

Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 37.9% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 11.3

Small Specs (16.3% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 14.6% of Shorts, balance plus 3.4

Commercials added considerably to longs, and reduced shorts; Large Specs added considerasbly to shorts, while reducing longs. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts, both to a marked degree, but maintained a 'normal' share of the total market.

Tuesday's close was well down from the previous week, at 1.5840 against 1.6065, but the figures above suggest that this fall may not continue. If Commercials continue to add to longs and reduce shorts - particularly with Small Specs doing the opposite - we could see the beginnings of a steady period for the Pound. 

COT data of Jan 15th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was a little lower, at 163295, but spreads were up, at 1568, increasing the proportion to around 1.0% - not surprisingly, given the price swings and resulting uncertainty.

Nett differences:

Commercials -46945 (from -43421).  Large Specs +28338 (from +25949).  Small Specs +18607 (from +17292). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 38.1% of Longs, 67.1% of Shorts, balance minus 29.0

Large Specs (30.7% of total) - 39.4% of Longs, 21.9% of Shorts, balance plus 17.5

Small Specs (16.7% of total) - 22.5% of Longs, 11.0% of Shorts, balance plus 11.5

Commercials reduced longs more than shorts, while Large Specs added to longs more than to shorts. Small Specs made little significant change to their positions.

With Tuesday's close almost unchanged from the previous week, at 1.6065 against 1.6055, but big price swings both before and since then, it is hard to draw conclusions from the once-a-week figures, but on balance - with Commercials still favouring the short side - we revert to our previous stance, of slightly negative on the Pound.

COT data of Jan 8th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 165584, but spreads were up, at 982. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -43421 (from -61235).  Large Specs +25949 (from +36308).  Small Specs +17292 (from +24927). 

Although the nett differences showed a considerable change from the previous week, the share of the total o/i held by each class did not alter much (see below). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (54.5% of total o/i) - 41.3% of Longs, 67.6% of Shorts, balance minus 26.3

Large Specs (28.9% of total) - 36.8% of Longs, 21.0% of Shorts, balance plus 15.8

Small Specs (16.6% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 11.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.5

Commercials made big changes to both longs and shorts, increasing the former and reducing the latter.
Large Specs went the opposite way, reducing longs and increasing shorts, with Small Specs acting in
similar fashion, although to a lesser extent.

Thursday's big rally from the 1.60 area may have changed things, but based on the figures above, and considering the move by Commercials to a much reduced nett short,  we are now considerably less negative on the Pound.

COT data of Dec 31st 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 31st, owing to the holiday break). Total o/i on Dec 31st was lower, at 174676, with spreads remaining very low, at 129. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -61235 (from -62763).  Large Specs +36308 (from +37321).  Small Specs +24927 (from +25442).   

Proportions:  

Commercials (53.6% of total o/i) - 36.1% of Longs, 71.2% of Shorts, balance minus 35.1

Large Specs (29.2% of total) - 39.6% of Longs, 18.8% of Shorts, balance plus 20.8

Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 24.3% of Longs, 10.0% of Shorts, balance plus 14.3 

Commercials reduced both logs and shorts, but on balance went a shade shorter. Large Specs also reduced both longs and shorts, going very slightly longer on balance. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, with little change showing up on their proportionate share - plus 14.3, from plus 14.1. However, they now hold a comparatively large share of the total o/i, at 17.2%.

There is nothing here to change our opinion - negative on the Pound.

COT data of Dec 24th 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell quite sharply into last Monday's close (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 24th, owing to the holiday break). However, from that 1.6125 level, the Pound has fluctuated without major fresh direction. Total o/i on the 24th was lower, at 181219, with spreads remaining low at 234 (still 0.1% of the total). 

Nett differences:

Commercials -62763 (from -53317).  Large Specs +37321 (from +28036).  Small Specs +25442 (from 25281).  

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.8% of total o/i) - 35.4% of Longs, 70.1% of Shorts, balance minus 34.7

Large Specs (30.8% of total) - 41.2% of Longs, 20.6% of Shorts, balance plus 20.6

Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 23.4% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 14.1

Commercials reduced their longs, but only in line with the lower overall o/i; however, they added to shorts considerably, with their nett negative balance noticeably bigger. Large Specs reduced longs somewhat, but reduced their shorts even more, moving to a large positive balance. Small Specs showed little change to either longs or shorts, going slightly more positive on balance.

The most evident changes are in the shorts held by Commercials (well up), and by Large Specs (well down). Positioning by all 3 classes keeps us bearish on the Pound.

COT data of Nov 13th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

With publication of the latest figures by the CFTC delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday, now seems a good time to catch up with events over the last month.

After values dropped somewhat (as expected), they have started to pick up again, and this should continue - depending on confirmation from the latest figures when they come out Monday night.

Total open interest was down, at 149173, and nett differences were lower - latest show Commercials -19431 (from -31150),  Large Specs +8228 (from +19279), and Small Specs +11203 (from +11871). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (53.7% of total o/i) - 47.2% of Longs, 60.3% of Shorts, balance minus 13.1

Large Specs (28.1% of total) - 30.9% of Longs, 25.3% of Shorts, balance plus 5.6

Small Specs (18.2% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 14.4% of Shorts, balance plus 7.5

Commercials have been adding to longs and reducing shorts, while Large Specs have done the reverse. Small Specs have not made major changes, but on balance remain somewhat overcommitted to the long side. In spite of that, we generally follow the lead of the Commercials, and therefore tend to the bull side.

But we'll wait for Monday night before drawing any further conclusions.

COT data of Oct 9th, 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell by last Tuesday' close to around 1.6000, although they have bounced slightly since then (Friday night's close 1.6070). Total o/i was lower, at 161,457, with spreads a little higher but still very low, at only 306.

Nett differences: 

Commercials -41892 from -56136.  Large Specs +22572, from +30094.  Small Specs +19320, from +26042. Nothing very remarkable here.

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (56.2% of total o/i) - 43.2% of Longs, 69.2% of Shorts, balance minus 26.0

Large Specs (26.6% of total) - 33.6% of Longs, 19.6% of Shorts, balance plus 14.0

Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 23.2% of Longs, 11.2% of Shorts, balance plus 12.0

 

Commercials made little change to their longs, but in a reduced total, their proportion increased. They reduced their shorts considerably, suggesting that they do not believe strongly in much lower values at this time.

Large Specs reduced their longs, presumably taking some profits, and although they reduced their total shorts, that proportion remained roughly unchanged.  Small Specs behaved in much the same manner, but their proportion of shorts increased; if one takes a contrarian view, one might expect slightly higher prices from here, and there seems nothing in the other positions to gainsay this view - based on these rather neutral figures, we look for Sterling to remain steady and featureless for the time being.