Something odd in BP & Euro COT

Figures published Jan 21st show a massive fall in Commercial longs and rise in Commercial shorts in both Pounds and Euros. Contrariwise, Big Specs show large rise in longs and large fall in shorts. Nett figs have switched over - BP Commercials are now nett short (from nett long), Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short - Euro Commercials are now nett short from nett long, and both Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short. Thought is needed - conclusions asap ....

Weather Warning ...

Today's Sunday Times reports that Abu Dhabi has been making rain in the desert - do they know about this?

< San Diego offers to pay "rainmaker" Charles Hatfield $10,000 to bring rain to fill a new reservoir. When rain causes flooding and severe damage, the city refuses to pay him. (San Diego, California, USA, Jan 1916)>

Isn't modern science wonderful !

"Baby joy for Sir Elton John and David Furnish
Celebrity friends offer congratulations
after little boy born on Christmas Day"
[News Headline on AOL]

Strong View

Looks like the US market may have topped - nasdaq had a text-book Hanging Man, and Russell 2000 a big Bearish Engulfing day - NAS has been leading the rally, and few people seem to watch the Russell.

@ Nov 9th - just goes to show - if the market won't do what it's 'supposed' to, it'll most likely do the opposite - in spades .....

British Pound COT at August 24th

Open interest numbers, both total and excluding spreads, were lower again, with spreads showing a tiny increase (at 0.2% of the total).
Commercials maintained their short positions, but added to longs, remaining nett long (plus 2.5, from plus 1.0, and after minus 3.2 two weeks ago).
Big specs were unchanged at nett short 3.1, reducing both longs and shorts by fair amounts. Small specs reduced longs and added to shorts, with their nett position close to square.
Overall nett positions were: commercials long 2.5 (from long 1.0), big specs short 3.1 (unchanged), small specs long 0.6 (from long 2.1).
No signs of excess in these figures, but suggestions of slightly steadier conditions.

Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 24th

Total open interest was slightly higher, at 556,464 (from 543,674), with the proportion of spreads a little lower at 11.7% of the total (versus 12.3%) - not indicative of anything particular.
The major nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 53.8 and big specs long 45.0, but small specs were nett long only 8.8 (from 9.5) - none of these are out of the ordinary.

Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 35.1% (from 36.1%), Big Specs 52.2% (from 50.5%), Small Specs 12.7% (from 13.4%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.9% (from 88.5%), Big Specs 7.1% (from 7.7%), Small Specs 3.9% (from 3.8%)

Commercials continued to add to shorts, with longs around unchanged, still suggesting that prices will move higher only sluggishly.

Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 17th

Total open interest rose again, to 543,674 from 523,078, with the proportion of spreads remaining unchanged, at 12.3% of the total.
All the nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 52.3%, big specs long 42.8%, and small specs long 9.5% - none of these are out of the ordinary.

Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 36.1% (from 38.0%), Big Specs 50.5% (from 49.0%), Small Specs 13.4% (from 13.0%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.5% (from 88.4%), Big Specs 7.7% (from 7.4%), Small Specs 3.8% (from 4.2%)

Commercials cutting longs (slightly) and adding to shorts (considerably) still suggests prices will move higher with difficulty.