"Baby joy for Sir Elton John and David Furnish
Celebrity friends offer congratulations
after little boy born on Christmas Day"
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Tuesday, 28 December 2010
Friday, 29 October 2010
Strong View
Looks like the US market may have topped - nasdaq had a text-book Hanging Man, and Russell 2000 a big Bearish Engulfing day - NAS has been leading the rally, and few people seem to watch the Russell.
@ Nov 9th - just goes to show - if the market won't do what it's 'supposed' to, it'll most likely do the opposite - in spades .....
@ Nov 9th - just goes to show - if the market won't do what it's 'supposed' to, it'll most likely do the opposite - in spades .....
Tuesday, 31 August 2010
British Pound COT at August 24th
Open interest numbers, both total and excluding spreads, were lower again, with spreads showing a tiny increase (at 0.2% of the total).
Commercials maintained their short positions, but added to longs, remaining nett long (plus 2.5, from plus 1.0, and after minus 3.2 two weeks ago).
Big specs were unchanged at nett short 3.1, reducing both longs and shorts by fair amounts. Small specs reduced longs and added to shorts, with their nett position close to square.
Overall nett positions were: commercials long 2.5 (from long 1.0), big specs short 3.1 (unchanged), small specs long 0.6 (from long 2.1).
No signs of excess in these figures, but suggestions of slightly steadier conditions.
Commercials maintained their short positions, but added to longs, remaining nett long (plus 2.5, from plus 1.0, and after minus 3.2 two weeks ago).
Big specs were unchanged at nett short 3.1, reducing both longs and shorts by fair amounts. Small specs reduced longs and added to shorts, with their nett position close to square.
Overall nett positions were: commercials long 2.5 (from long 1.0), big specs short 3.1 (unchanged), small specs long 0.6 (from long 2.1).
No signs of excess in these figures, but suggestions of slightly steadier conditions.
Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 24th
Total open interest was slightly higher, at 556,464 (from 543,674), with the proportion of spreads a little lower at 11.7% of the total (versus 12.3%) - not indicative of anything particular.
The major nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 53.8 and big specs long 45.0, but small specs were nett long only 8.8 (from 9.5) - none of these are out of the ordinary.
Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 35.1% (from 36.1%), Big Specs 52.2% (from 50.5%), Small Specs 12.7% (from 13.4%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.9% (from 88.5%), Big Specs 7.1% (from 7.7%), Small Specs 3.9% (from 3.8%)
Commercials continued to add to shorts, with longs around unchanged, still suggesting that prices will move higher only sluggishly.
The major nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 53.8 and big specs long 45.0, but small specs were nett long only 8.8 (from 9.5) - none of these are out of the ordinary.
Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 35.1% (from 36.1%), Big Specs 52.2% (from 50.5%), Small Specs 12.7% (from 13.4%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.9% (from 88.5%), Big Specs 7.1% (from 7.7%), Small Specs 3.9% (from 3.8%)
Commercials continued to add to shorts, with longs around unchanged, still suggesting that prices will move higher only sluggishly.
Saturday, 21 August 2010
Gold COT (Commitment of Traders) at Aug 17th
Total open interest rose again, to 543,674 from 523,078, with the proportion of spreads remaining unchanged, at 12.3% of the total.
All the nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 52.3%, big specs long 42.8%, and small specs long 9.5% - none of these are out of the ordinary.
Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 36.1% (from 38.0%), Big Specs 50.5% (from 49.0%), Small Specs 13.4% (from 13.0%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.5% (from 88.4%), Big Specs 7.7% (from 7.4%), Small Specs 3.8% (from 4.2%)
Commercials cutting longs (slightly) and adding to shorts (considerably) still suggests prices will move higher with difficulty.
All the nett positions increased once again, with commercials now short 52.3%, big specs long 42.8%, and small specs long 9.5% - none of these are out of the ordinary.
Percent figures (after excluding estimated spreads) were:
Market long positions - Commercials 36.1% (from 38.0%), Big Specs 50.5% (from 49.0%), Small Specs 13.4% (from 13.0%)
Market short position - Commercials 88.5% (from 88.4%), Big Specs 7.7% (from 7.4%), Small Specs 3.8% (from 4.2%)
Commercials cutting longs (slightly) and adding to shorts (considerably) still suggests prices will move higher with difficulty.
British Pound COT at August 17th
Total open interest went up slightly, with spreads showing a tiny increase (at 0.1% of the total).
Commercials reduced their short positions considerably, while increasing their longs a fraction. After last week's unusual move to a nett short position, they reverted to their usual nett long - although only just so, at plus 1.0% (vs minus 3.2%).
Big specs returned to their normal nett short, both reducing longs and adding to shorts, while small specs did the opposite. Nett positions were: big specs short 3.1% (from long 3.5%), small specs long 2.1% (from short 0.3%).
Not a great deal of change, but overall suggesting falls from here should only be moderate.
Commercials reduced their short positions considerably, while increasing their longs a fraction. After last week's unusual move to a nett short position, they reverted to their usual nett long - although only just so, at plus 1.0% (vs minus 3.2%).
Big specs returned to their normal nett short, both reducing longs and adding to shorts, while small specs did the opposite. Nett positions were: big specs short 3.1% (from long 3.5%), small specs long 2.1% (from short 0.3%).
Not a great deal of change, but overall suggesting falls from here should only be moderate.
Saturday, 14 August 2010
Notes re COT - August 10th 2010
Noticeable changes include -
Soybean Oil - commercials added aggressively to shorts = bearish
Euro - all three classes were close to square
Copper - commercials were adding to shorts = not bullish
Wheat (Chicago) - commercials went nett short = bearish
(KC) - commercials remained strongly nett short
Soybean Oil - commercials added aggressively to shorts = bearish
Euro - all three classes were close to square
Copper - commercials were adding to shorts = not bullish
Wheat (Chicago) - commercials went nett short = bearish
(KC) - commercials remained strongly nett short
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