COT data of Jan 7th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  194668; spreads 3318 (= 1.7%). Closing price on Jan 7th:1.6400

Nett differences:
Commercials -36769 (from -45581)  Large Specs +18178 (from +22781)  Small Specs +18591 (from +22800)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (60.8% of total o/i) - 51.2% of Longs, 70.4% of Shorts, balance minus 19.2

Large Specs (23.8% of total) - 28.6% of Longs, 19.1% of Shorts, balance plus 9.5
Small Specs (15.4% of total) - 20.2% of Longs, 10.5% of Shorts, balance plus 9.7

 

No sector appears to be willing to make much outright commitment at present. The share of total o/i held by Large Specs continues to decline, while that held by Small Specs is up again - however, their proportionate nett position is smaller (although they are comparatively still quite long). Commercials remain short, but less so than last week. There are no extremes to get excited about ...

COT data of Dec 31st 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  206886; spreads 3104 (= 1.5%). Closing price on Dec 31st: 1.6565

Nett differences:
Commercials -45581 (from -34332)  Large Specs +22781 (from +14420)  Small Specs +22800 (from +19912)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (60.4% of total o/i) - 49.2% of Longs, 71.6% of Shorts, balance minus 22.4

Large Specs (24.9% of total) - 30.5% of Longs, 19.3% of Shorts, balance plus 11.2
Small Specs (14.7% of total) - 20.3% of Longs, 9.1% of Shorts, balance plus 11.2

 

Commercials added to longs, but added even more to shorts. Large Specs reduced longs (proportionately), but reduced shorts even more, taking their share of total o/i to quite a low level. Small Specs added to longs, and retained a comparatively large share of total o/i. We repeat our previous comment - the long position held by Small Specs seems to be becoming rather excessive, and on this basis we could expect any fall, once it starts, to be noticeable. However, if you prefer to follow the lead of the Large Specs (which we do not!), you will note that their nett long is the highest since January last year.

Figures delayed by holidays ... Again ...

Please note, COT figures will not be published by the CFTC until Monday evening  .... 

 

COT data of Dec 24th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  198063; spreads 2553 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 24th: 1.6355

Nett differences:
Commercials -34332 (from -33548)  Large Specs +14420 (from +17825)  Small Specs +19912 (from +15723)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (57.2% of total o/i) - 48.4% of Longs, 66.0% of Shorts, balance minus 17.6

Large Specs (28.3% of total) - 32.0% of Longs, 24.6% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (14.5% of total) - 19.6% of Longs, 9.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.2

 

Very little change in Commercials, and only a slight change in Large Specs as they (comparatively) reduced longs and added to shorts. The main difference was in Small Specs whose long position seems to be becoming rather excessive;  on this basis we could expect any fall, once it starts, to be quite abrupt. 

Figures delayed by holidays ...

Please note, COT figures will not be published by the CFTC until Monday evening  ....

COT data of Dec 17th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  191648; spreads 2508 (= 1.3%). Closing price on Dec 17th: 1.6270

Nett differences:
Commercials -33548 (from -36501)  Large Specs +17825 (from +18429)  Small Specs +15723 (from +18072)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (57.5% of total o/i) - 48.6% of Longs, 66.4% of Shorts, balance minus 17.7

Large Specs (28.2% of total) - 32.9% of Longs, 23.5% of Shorts, balance plus 9.4
Small Specs (14.3% of total) - 18.5% of Longs, 10.1% of Shorts, balance plus 8.3

In spite of the sharp reduction in total o/i as the Dec position moved off the board, there was little change in the nett differences. However, proportionately, Commercials reduced their total commitments while adding to their minus balance. This is now at its highest since January; the previous large minus balance was basis Oct 22nd - note that prices fell from both January and the October date. Large and Small Specs both added to longs more than to shorts, and the outlook remains - it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up. 

 

COT data of Dec 10th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i  255604; spreads 6350 (= 2.5%). Closing price on Dec 10th: 1.6445

Nett differences:
Commercials -36501 (from -35420)  Large Specs +18429 (from +18369)  Small Specs +18072 (from +17051)
 
Proportions:

Commercials (62.4% of total o/i) - 55.1% of Longs, 69.7% of Shorts, balance minus 14.6

Large Specs (24.8% of total) - 28.5% of Longs, 21.1% of Shorts, balance plus 7.4
Small Specs (12.8% of total) - 16.4% of Longs, 9.2% of Shorts, balance plus 7.2 

Not a great deal of guidance this week, with Commercials a little less short (proportionately), but still taking the short side overall. They have increased their share of the total open interest, so their position may be increasingly significant. Specs - both Large and Small - have reduced their commitments, but not changed their outlook. On balance, it appears that the pound will move more easily down than up.