COT data of Feb 5th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was barely changed, at 165369, with spreads very slightly lower, at 3151 (1.9% of the total).

Nett differences:

Commercials +16548 (from +140).  Large Specs +1174 (from +10622).  Small Specs -17722 (from +10762). Commercials moved more vigorously to nett long, Small Specs went further short.

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.4% of total o/i) - 57.5% of Longs, 47.3% of Shorts, balance plus 10.2 

Large Specs (31.7% of total) - 32.0% of Longs, 31.3% of Shorts, balance plus 0.7

Small Specs (15.9% of total) - 10.5% of Longs, 21.4% of Shorts, balance minus 10.9

Commercials once again added considerably to longs while reducing shorts; Large Specs reduced longs but added to shorts, becoming very close to square. Small Specs again reduced longs somewhat, and again added to shorts. All sectors kept close to their previous share of the total market, with the comparatively high proportion held by Small Specs indicating continued choppy trading. 

Even though Tuesday's close was down from the previous week, at a recent low of 1.5660, the market has rallied since then to close on Friday around 1.5800. The latest COT figures, with Commercials going longer and Small Specs going shorter, continue to suggest steadier conditions for the Pound. 

COT data of Jan 29th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i rose, to 166060, with spreads also higher, at 3248 (2.0% of the total).
 

Nett differences:

Commercials +140 (from -23389).  Large Specs +10622 (from +17938).  Small Specs -10762 (from +5451). Commercials moved to nett long (although only barely) - the first time since mid-August of last year.

Small Specs went nett short, also for the first time since August 2012.

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.2% of total o/i) - 52.3% of Longs, 52.2% of Shorts, balance plus 0.1 

Large Specs (32.4% of total) - 35.6% of Longs, 29.1% of Shorts, balance plus 6.5

Small Specs (15.4% of total) - 12.1% of Longs, 18.7% of Shorts, balance minus 6.6 

Commercials again added considerably to longs, and reduced shorts; Large Specs reduced both longs and  shorts, becoming less long overall. Small Specs reduced longs noticeably, and also added to shorts - even though their share of the total market remained little changed, their proportion of shorts (in conjunction with the fact that Commercials went nett long) creates danger signals. 

Tuesday's close was down from the previous week, at 1.5765, but since then the market has proved highly erratic, bouncing from around 1.5700 to almost 1.5900 before falling again. Based on the COT figures (and although fundamental backing seems absent), we continue to look for steadier conditions for the Pound. 

COT data of Jan 22nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 160820, but spreads were up once more, at 2153, increasing their proportion to around 1.3% - suggesting that uncertainty remains a factor in the market. 

 

Nett differences:

Commercials -23389 (from -46945).  Large Specs +17938 (from +28338).  Small Specs +5451 (from +18607). Small Specs show the smallest nett long since late August 2012, after which point the market started to firm.

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (51.4% of total o/i) - 44.1% of Longs, 58.8% of Shorts, balance minus 14.7

Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 37.9% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 11.3

Small Specs (16.3% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 14.6% of Shorts, balance plus 3.4

Commercials added considerably to longs, and reduced shorts; Large Specs added considerasbly to shorts, while reducing longs. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts, both to a marked degree, but maintained a 'normal' share of the total market.

Tuesday's close was well down from the previous week, at 1.5840 against 1.6065, but the figures above suggest that this fall may not continue. If Commercials continue to add to longs and reduce shorts - particularly with Small Specs doing the opposite - we could see the beginnings of a steady period for the Pound. 

COT data of Jan 15th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was a little lower, at 163295, but spreads were up, at 1568, increasing the proportion to around 1.0% - not surprisingly, given the price swings and resulting uncertainty.

Nett differences:

Commercials -46945 (from -43421).  Large Specs +28338 (from +25949).  Small Specs +18607 (from +17292). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 38.1% of Longs, 67.1% of Shorts, balance minus 29.0

Large Specs (30.7% of total) - 39.4% of Longs, 21.9% of Shorts, balance plus 17.5

Small Specs (16.7% of total) - 22.5% of Longs, 11.0% of Shorts, balance plus 11.5

Commercials reduced longs more than shorts, while Large Specs added to longs more than to shorts. Small Specs made little significant change to their positions.

With Tuesday's close almost unchanged from the previous week, at 1.6065 against 1.6055, but big price swings both before and since then, it is hard to draw conclusions from the once-a-week figures, but on balance - with Commercials still favouring the short side - we revert to our previous stance, of slightly negative on the Pound.

COT data of Jan 8th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 165584, but spreads were up, at 982. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -43421 (from -61235).  Large Specs +25949 (from +36308).  Small Specs +17292 (from +24927). 

Although the nett differences showed a considerable change from the previous week, the share of the total o/i held by each class did not alter much (see below). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (54.5% of total o/i) - 41.3% of Longs, 67.6% of Shorts, balance minus 26.3

Large Specs (28.9% of total) - 36.8% of Longs, 21.0% of Shorts, balance plus 15.8

Small Specs (16.6% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 11.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.5

Commercials made big changes to both longs and shorts, increasing the former and reducing the latter.
Large Specs went the opposite way, reducing longs and increasing shorts, with Small Specs acting in
similar fashion, although to a lesser extent.

Thursday's big rally from the 1.60 area may have changed things, but based on the figures above, and considering the move by Commercials to a much reduced nett short,  we are now considerably less negative on the Pound.

COT data of Dec 31st 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 31st, owing to the holiday break). Total o/i on Dec 31st was lower, at 174676, with spreads remaining very low, at 129. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -61235 (from -62763).  Large Specs +36308 (from +37321).  Small Specs +24927 (from +25442).   

Proportions:  

Commercials (53.6% of total o/i) - 36.1% of Longs, 71.2% of Shorts, balance minus 35.1

Large Specs (29.2% of total) - 39.6% of Longs, 18.8% of Shorts, balance plus 20.8

Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 24.3% of Longs, 10.0% of Shorts, balance plus 14.3 

Commercials reduced both logs and shorts, but on balance went a shade shorter. Large Specs also reduced both longs and shorts, going very slightly longer on balance. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, with little change showing up on their proportionate share - plus 14.3, from plus 14.1. However, they now hold a comparatively large share of the total o/i, at 17.2%.

There is nothing here to change our opinion - negative on the Pound.

COT data of Dec 24th 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Values fell quite sharply into last Monday's close (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 24th, owing to the holiday break). However, from that 1.6125 level, the Pound has fluctuated without major fresh direction. Total o/i on the 24th was lower, at 181219, with spreads remaining low at 234 (still 0.1% of the total). 

Nett differences:

Commercials -62763 (from -53317).  Large Specs +37321 (from +28036).  Small Specs +25442 (from 25281).  

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.8% of total o/i) - 35.4% of Longs, 70.1% of Shorts, balance minus 34.7

Large Specs (30.8% of total) - 41.2% of Longs, 20.6% of Shorts, balance plus 20.6

Small Specs (16.4% of total) - 23.4% of Longs, 9.3% of Shorts, balance plus 14.1

Commercials reduced their longs, but only in line with the lower overall o/i; however, they added to shorts considerably, with their nett negative balance noticeably bigger. Large Specs reduced longs somewhat, but reduced their shorts even more, moving to a large positive balance. Small Specs showed little change to either longs or shorts, going slightly more positive on balance.

The most evident changes are in the shorts held by Commercials (well up), and by Large Specs (well down). Positioning by all 3 classes keeps us bearish on the Pound.