COT data of May 15th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close at 1.5995 was down a little from the previous week, but not really enough to make money - and it looks like the forthcoming period will be much the same. Changes in holdings were minimal, although overall the direction looks unaltered.

Commercials raised their share of total Longs to 51.5% (from 49.1%), but also increased their Shorts to 75.0% (from 73.4%). Nett therefore was minus 23.5, only a marginal change from the previous minus 24.3. Similarly, Large Specs moved to 28.9% of total Longs (from 29.9%), and to 16.3% of total Shorts (from 17.2%). Small Specs held 19.6% of total Longs (from 21.0%), and 8.7% of total Shorts (from 9.4%). Netts were plus 12.6 (from plus 12.7), and plus 10.9 (from plus 11.6) respectively - nothing very significant there ...


So we'll remain somewhat bearish on the Pound, but not very excited about it ...

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - The close on Tuesday of last week was 1.6160, with prices pausing after some improvement from our last posting. Prices since then have tended to ease, in line with our expectations, and we feel this tendency will probably continue.

Latest figures show Commercials raising their share of an increasing Total Open Interest, at 61.2%, compared to a reduced 23.6% for Large Specs and a not-much-changed 15.2% for Small Specs. Nett positions show Commercials at minus 24.3 (from plus 13.8 on April 10th), Large Specs at plus 23.6 (compared to minus 12.9), and Small Specs at plus 11.6 (versus minus 0.9). Split down, the figures show Commercials hold 49.1% of total Longs, Large Specs have 29.9%, and Small Specs have 21.0%. On the Short side, Commercials now hold 73.4% (a high number), Large Specs 17.2% (low), and Small Specs 9.4% (comparatively low).

The significant changes show Large Specs have added to Longs and reduced their Shorts, while Commercials have added to Shorts - bearish ....

COT data of May 8th 2012

COT data of May 8th 2012

British Pounds - More detailed report to follow, but it's interesting to see that Commercials continue to short the Pound at an increasing rate, while both Large and Small Specs add to longs - we'd rather be on the short side!

London COT of April 17th 2012

Nothing remarkable showing in Cocoa or Coffee, but SUGAR shows a big switch, with Commercials moving their share of the total long position to 44.1%, from 34.2% while keeeping 81.5% (from 82.8%) of the total shorts. Large Specs didn't change that much, but Small Specs (the 'Contrary Indicator') went overall short, from long, with 5.7% of the total longs, and 9.8% of the total shorts.
That should be a sign that we're somewhere near the bottom ....

COT data of April 17th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5935, showing some improvement from the previous week, and values have moved up again since then. However, although the total open position rose once more, to 157015 (from 145522), Commercials did not continue their previous more enthusiastic approach. [Spreads were higher, but still not significant, at 592 (from 286)].

The split of open positions showed Commercials reducing their nett long to 8401, from 20094, and they held 62.7% of the total long o/i, down from 64.9% - although the number of contracts rose. More significantly, they increased their shorts considerably, holding 57.3% of the total (up from 51.1%), with the number of contracts up considerably. Nett balance fell to plus 5.4, from plus 13.8.

Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, holding 21.2% and 29.6% respectively (nett therefore minus 8.4, from minus 12.9 the previous week). Small Specs acted similarly, taking their percentage of shorts down to a lowish 13.1%, and going long overall.

The changes suggest that the current price improvement may not carry far - Sterling bulls should probably raise their trailing stops.

COT data of April 10th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5860, showing yet again little change from the previous week. The total open position rose a little, to 145522 (from 142660), but Spreads were again minimal, at 286 (from 160).
However, the split of open positions is gradually returning to more normal levels - Commercials increased their nett long to 20094, from 6983, and they held 64.9% of the total long o/i, up from 61.6%. More significantly, they reduced their shorts considerably, holding only 51.1% of the total (down from 56.7%).
Large Specs added to shorts, and now hold 33.4% of the total (from 26.7%), while remaining with a 20.5% share of total longs - this gives them a rather high 27% share of the total o/i.
Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, and went nett short overall.
The changes suggest that the recent period of sideways movement may be coming to an end, with Sterling bulls seeing some reward.

COT data of April 3rd 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5910, yet again showed little change from the previous week, and the total open position was again uninspiring, at 142660 (from 135147). Spreads also were almost unchanged at 160 (from 157).
Whatever judgements one might have made previously remain as they were - Commercials have again lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 6983, and they held only 61.6% of the total long o/i, down from 62.1%, with their shorts increasing slightly as a proportion, at 56.7%, from 55.5%).
Large Specs added to longs, and also to shorts (although to a lesser extent), while Small Specs did the same, adding to both longs and shorts - they remained nett long overall, with their share of the total open position remaining comparatively high, at 17.2% ( from 17.4% previously). Commercials hold 59.2%, compared to a 'normal' 64 - 70%, and Large Specs have 23.6%, which remains just slightly more than usual).
As we said last week, perhaps the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance - meantime, we're not bullish in the medium term.