London COT of April 17th 2012

Nothing remarkable showing in Cocoa or Coffee, but SUGAR shows a big switch, with Commercials moving their share of the total long position to 44.1%, from 34.2% while keeeping 81.5% (from 82.8%) of the total shorts. Large Specs didn't change that much, but Small Specs (the 'Contrary Indicator') went overall short, from long, with 5.7% of the total longs, and 9.8% of the total shorts.
That should be a sign that we're somewhere near the bottom ....

COT data of April 17th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5935, showing some improvement from the previous week, and values have moved up again since then. However, although the total open position rose once more, to 157015 (from 145522), Commercials did not continue their previous more enthusiastic approach. [Spreads were higher, but still not significant, at 592 (from 286)].

The split of open positions showed Commercials reducing their nett long to 8401, from 20094, and they held 62.7% of the total long o/i, down from 64.9% - although the number of contracts rose. More significantly, they increased their shorts considerably, holding 57.3% of the total (up from 51.1%), with the number of contracts up considerably. Nett balance fell to plus 5.4, from plus 13.8.

Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, holding 21.2% and 29.6% respectively (nett therefore minus 8.4, from minus 12.9 the previous week). Small Specs acted similarly, taking their percentage of shorts down to a lowish 13.1%, and going long overall.

The changes suggest that the current price improvement may not carry far - Sterling bulls should probably raise their trailing stops.

COT data of April 10th 2012

British Pounds - Last Tuesday's close was 1.5860, showing yet again little change from the previous week. The total open position rose a little, to 145522 (from 142660), but Spreads were again minimal, at 286 (from 160).
However, the split of open positions is gradually returning to more normal levels - Commercials increased their nett long to 20094, from 6983, and they held 64.9% of the total long o/i, up from 61.6%. More significantly, they reduced their shorts considerably, holding only 51.1% of the total (down from 56.7%).
Large Specs added to shorts, and now hold 33.4% of the total (from 26.7%), while remaining with a 20.5% share of total longs - this gives them a rather high 27% share of the total o/i.
Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, and went nett short overall.
The changes suggest that the recent period of sideways movement may be coming to an end, with Sterling bulls seeing some reward.

COT data of April 3rd 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5910, yet again showed little change from the previous week, and the total open position was again uninspiring, at 142660 (from 135147). Spreads also were almost unchanged at 160 (from 157).
Whatever judgements one might have made previously remain as they were - Commercials have again lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 6983, and they held only 61.6% of the total long o/i, down from 62.1%, with their shorts increasing slightly as a proportion, at 56.7%, from 55.5%).
Large Specs added to longs, and also to shorts (although to a lesser extent), while Small Specs did the same, adding to both longs and shorts - they remained nett long overall, with their share of the total open position remaining comparatively high, at 17.2% ( from 17.4% previously). Commercials hold 59.2%, compared to a 'normal' 64 - 70%, and Large Specs have 23.6%, which remains just slightly more than usual).
As we said last week, perhaps the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance - meantime, we're not bullish in the medium term.

COT data of March 20th 2012

British Pounds - Tuesday's close, at 1.5860, showed some improvement from the previous 1.5700, justifying Commercials' decision to add to longs. The latest figures however are distorted by the close of the March contract, with the total open position way down at 141411 (from 202880). Spreads similarly went down to only 99, from the previous 7246.
In light of these reductions, it seems best to wait for the next set of figures before committing funds - however, one can note that Commercials appear to have lessened their enthusiasm (their nett was plus 20814, and they held only 67.9% of the total long O/I, down from 80.2%, with their shorts around unchanged as a proportion, at 53.2%, from 53.0%).
Large Specs added to longs and reduced shorts, while Small Specs added to longs AND shorts - their share of the total open position is now comparatively high, at 15.4%, compared to a normal 12% or so.
Hopefully the next set of figures will provide more convincing guidance, but for the moment we are not as bullish as we were.

London Cocoa open interest - March 13th

Commercials reduced longs and maintained their share of shorts, while 'Others' also maintained their share of shorts but added to longs. Nett positions: Commercials plus 6.8 (from plus 12.1), 'Others' minus 5.3 (from minus 10.1), Small Specs minus 1.5 (from minus 2.0). Taken together with Commercials' nett position at +11707 (from +21477), suggests lower prices to come ...

London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 13th

The trend established last week has continued - yesterday's figures show Commercials going short, at nett - 5894 from - 17 (and previously long). Their longs were unchanged, but they added to shorts (now holding 61.6% of the total open short position). 'Others' added to longs, and reduced shorts, while Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, with little net change. 'On balance figures' (which nett out): Commercials minus 10.1 (from square), Others plus 11.8 (from plus 1.5), and Small Specs minus 1.7 (from minus 1.5). Should lead to lower prices in due course ...