British Pounds - Tuesday's close was little changed from previously, at 1.5700, but Large Specs continued to add (slightly) to Shorts, taking their nett position up to minus 21.4, from minus 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 11.2% and total shorts fractionally up, to 32.6%. Small Specs reduced their longs as well as adding to shorts. More significantly, Commercials changed their nett position from plus 23.6 to plus 27.2, with their nett difference going up from +43326 to +53214.
All of this seems to confirm that long Sterling positions could prove profitable ....
Saturday, 17 March 2012
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
London (Robusta) Coffee open interest - March 6th
Very intriguing figures published yesterday - Commercials (at March 6) were square, with 51.4% of the total longs AND 51.4% of the total shorts - so, having been nett long 13188 contracts the previous week, they're now flat. Small Specs are offset by 'the others', at plus 1.5 versus minus 1.5 - lower prices seem likely.
Sunday, 11 March 2012
London (Robusta) Coffee open interest
Will be watching tomorrow's stats with interest - Commercials (based on last week's figures) had reduced their longs considerably , with their nett positions down to +13188 from +18713 the week before, and their nett (based on percantage of the total) down to plus 17.3, from 23.7 previously. If this continues, we should be looking for declining prices ....
(Small specs are slightly long overall at present, but they've been swinging either side of zero for some time now - probably not a major factor, even though they hold over 12% of the total O/I, compared to just over 7% in London Cocoa)
[Note: figures are not published until Monday/s]
(Small specs are slightly long overall at present, but they've been swinging either side of zero for some time now - probably not a major factor, even though they hold over 12% of the total O/I, compared to just over 7% in London Cocoa)
[Note: figures are not published until Monday/s]
COT data of March 6th 2012
British Pounds - With Tuesday's close at 1.5715, Large Specs had gone considerably shorter - after taking their nett shorts down from 21.2 on Feb 14 to 13.2 on Feb 28th, they moved back to 20.2, with their share of total longs down to 12.2% and total shorts up to 22.3%. However (more importantly), Commercials changed their nett position from plus 17.4 to plus 23.6, with their nett difference going up from +30702 to +43326.
This suggests a small but perhaps significant change in attitude - Commercials are liking Sterling more than they did ....
This suggests a small but perhaps significant change in attitude - Commercials are liking Sterling more than they did ....
Tuesday, 11 October 2011
COT of Oct 7th
Remarkable how many COT markets (principally but not entirely Commodities) are showing Commercials going long - out of 34 that I watch, 15 are at biggest Longs (or smallest Shorts) for the last 12 months - and there's another 3 that were in the same situation last week but didn't continue this time ... So Commercials are bullish on more than half the markets ....
Sunday, 4 September 2011
COT published 2nd Sep 2011
BRITISH POUND
Within a lower than normal total O/I (only 96164), Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, suggesting a steadier Pound to come. However, their nett position (minus 10.9 on balance) is not abnormal - just much less than the previous week (when they were minus 23.5 on balance). So, not a great deal of movement can be expected.
STATS: spreads minimal (0.2%); Commercials held 36.5% of total longs (from 29.1%), 47.4% of total shorts (from 52.6%), and 42.0% of total O/I (not remarkable). Their nett: minus 10.9 (from minus 23.5).
Big Specs held 32.6% of total longs (from 40.1%), 32.1% of total shorts (from 29.3%), and 32.3% of total O/I (lower than recent average). Their nett: plus 0.5 (from plus 10.7).
Small Specs held 30.9% of total longs (from 30.8), 20.5% of total shorts (from 18.0%), and 25.7% of total O/I (highest since mid-June). Nett: plus 10.4 (from plus 12.8). The high level of Small Spec involvement could mean prices bounce around a bit ....
Within a lower than normal total O/I (only 96164), Commercials added to longs and reduced shorts, suggesting a steadier Pound to come. However, their nett position (minus 10.9 on balance) is not abnormal - just much less than the previous week (when they were minus 23.5 on balance). So, not a great deal of movement can be expected.
STATS: spreads minimal (0.2%); Commercials held 36.5% of total longs (from 29.1%), 47.4% of total shorts (from 52.6%), and 42.0% of total O/I (not remarkable). Their nett: minus 10.9 (from minus 23.5).
Big Specs held 32.6% of total longs (from 40.1%), 32.1% of total shorts (from 29.3%), and 32.3% of total O/I (lower than recent average). Their nett: plus 0.5 (from plus 10.7).
Small Specs held 30.9% of total longs (from 30.8), 20.5% of total shorts (from 18.0%), and 25.7% of total O/I (highest since mid-June). Nett: plus 10.4 (from plus 12.8). The high level of Small Spec involvement could mean prices bounce around a bit ....
Monday, 13 June 2011
COT basis June 7th, 2011
GOLD spreads have dropped sharply, from 7.2% of total O/I two weeks ago, to only 2.8%, suggesting more definite views on price direction. However, all that seems to be happening is a reversion to the normal - Commercials are adding to shorts and reducing longs (they're now nett -50.7, from -44.0 two weeks ago), Big Specs are adding to longs and reducing shorts (now nett +40.7, from +35.0 two weeks ago), and Small Specs remain close to home (at +10.0, from +9.0). With Big Specs often providing a better lead than Commercials in this market, we'll stay moderately friendly.
Mini S&P shows a less encouraging picture: Commercials reduced their nett long (now +5.8, from +8.2 two weeks ago and +9.9 last week), adding considerably to shorts and only marginally to longs, while Big Specs moved from nett short (-1.4 last week) to nett long (+1.4 this week). They have a slightly bigger share of the total O/I than usual, at 16.9% (Commercials have 71.2%, Small Specs have 11.9%), so could have an impact if/when they change their view. Small Specs are nett short (at -7.2), but have less weight than usual, meaning that their view should be less significant as a Contrary Indicator than it sometimes is. The path of least resistance looks downward.
Currency positions continued to swing around, but now generally in a move towards the norm. Br Pounds saw Commercials moving back to nett short, at -6.4 from +11.1 two weeks ago); Big Specs reduced their nett short, at -1.5 (from -12.9 two weeks ago), while Small Specs became the holders of the offsetting longs (at +7.9). Their share of the total O/I remains quite low, at 20.7% (vs Commercials at 48.8% and Big Specs at 30.5%). Price direction now looks down rather than up, but there's not much in it.
In EUROS also, positions have continued to revert to type. Commercials are nett short 20.1 (from -8.8 two weeks ago), Big Specs nett long (+17.6, from +7.4), and Small Specs still uncertain, at +2.5 (from +1.4). Commercials added considerably to shorts, and reduced longs, while Big Specs did the reverse - noticeably, they took their share of total shorts down to 15.1% (last week they held 21.8%) - this gives them plenty of room to sell again. We'll join the Commercials on the short side.
Mini S&P shows a less encouraging picture: Commercials reduced their nett long (now +5.8, from +8.2 two weeks ago and +9.9 last week), adding considerably to shorts and only marginally to longs, while Big Specs moved from nett short (-1.4 last week) to nett long (+1.4 this week). They have a slightly bigger share of the total O/I than usual, at 16.9% (Commercials have 71.2%, Small Specs have 11.9%), so could have an impact if/when they change their view. Small Specs are nett short (at -7.2), but have less weight than usual, meaning that their view should be less significant as a Contrary Indicator than it sometimes is. The path of least resistance looks downward.
Currency positions continued to swing around, but now generally in a move towards the norm. Br Pounds saw Commercials moving back to nett short, at -6.4 from +11.1 two weeks ago); Big Specs reduced their nett short, at -1.5 (from -12.9 two weeks ago), while Small Specs became the holders of the offsetting longs (at +7.9). Their share of the total O/I remains quite low, at 20.7% (vs Commercials at 48.8% and Big Specs at 30.5%). Price direction now looks down rather than up, but there's not much in it.
In EUROS also, positions have continued to revert to type. Commercials are nett short 20.1 (from -8.8 two weeks ago), Big Specs nett long (+17.6, from +7.4), and Small Specs still uncertain, at +2.5 (from +1.4). Commercials added considerably to shorts, and reduced longs, while Big Specs did the reverse - noticeably, they took their share of total shorts down to 15.1% (last week they held 21.8%) - this gives them plenty of room to sell again. We'll join the Commercials on the short side.
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