GOLD total open interest up again - spreads ditto, at 5.4% (versus 4.7% previously). Commercials reduced their longs, now holding 32.0% of the total long position, but added noticeably to shorts, with their share of the total up to 83.3%. Their net is minus 51.3, the largest since mid-Dec. Small Specs reduced both longs and shorts, but not significantly - long share 15.2% (from 15.4), and short share 4.3% (from 4.6), giving a net of plus 10.9. Big Specs added to longs (52.8%), while reducing shorts considerably (12.4%), leaving them nett positive 40.4 (from 37.7). Overall, nothing very dramatic, but indicating a lessening of bullish conviction from the Commercials.
Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials minus 0.4 (from plus 1.0), Big Specs plus 2.0 (unchanged), and Small Specs minus 1.6 (from minus 3.0). Spreads were down. Hard to find any signals in these figures.
BP showed a couple of major changes - Commercials reduced shorts from 68.6% to 61.8% while retaining their longs (nett now minus 31.1, from minus 38.1), and Big Specs added to their shorts, now holding 20.9% of the total (making them nett long 20.5, compared to 29.2 last week). Small Specs went slightly longer, (now nett plus 10.6, from plus 9.0). Commercials' positions suggest continued confidence in Pound strength.
EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 29.7 (from minus 26.4), Big Specs plus 24.1 (from plus 22.3), and Small Specs plus 5.6 (from plus 4.1). Commercials continue to reduce longs and add to shorts (31.3%, from 33.7%, and 61.0%, from 60.1% respectively), and seem happy to sell the rally.
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
COT basis Feb 22
GOLD total open interest continues to rise, as does the spread position, although that remains comparatively low (4.7% against previous 4.5%, and normal 10-13%). Commercials have begun to add to longs, but only hold 33.0% of the total long position - they still appear to be adding more to shorts, although their share of the total is almost unchanged, at 81.5% (nett minus 48.5). Small Specs have added to their share of longs (15.4%), and reduced their share of shorts (4.6%), giving a net of plus 10.8. Big Specs added to longs (51.6%), but also added to shorts (32.8%), leaving them nett positive 37.7. Proportionately, still not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials plus 1.0, Big Specs plus 2.0,and Small Specs - the biggest change - minus 3.0. Potentially a little bullish. However, Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, and spreads increased, both of which are indicative of doubt.
BP continued in the same direction as previously, contrary to a week ago - Commercials added disproportionately to longs (30.5% of the total, from 21.6%), and reduced shorts (68.6%, from 71.7%), but remained overall short (nett minus 38.1, from minus 50.1). Big Specs held 43.0% of the total longs (well down on the week), but their shorts were barely changed (at 13.8%, compared to 12.3%). This put their nett at plus 29.2, versus 39.6 the previous week. Small Specs again generally reduced commitments, while staying nett long (plus 9.0, versus plus 10.5). Commercials' activity suggests a steadier Pound, softer Dollar.
EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 26.4 (from minus 22.3), Big Specs plus 22.3 (from plus 17.1), and Small Specs plus 4.1 (from plus 5.2). Small Specs hold 26.3% of the total open interest, but seem very undecided as to direction - Commercials (with 46.9% of the total, and nett short) appear to offer the best guidance.
Mini S&P nett positions show Commercials plus 1.0, Big Specs plus 2.0,and Small Specs - the biggest change - minus 3.0. Potentially a little bullish. However, Commercials reduced both longs and shorts, and spreads increased, both of which are indicative of doubt.
BP continued in the same direction as previously, contrary to a week ago - Commercials added disproportionately to longs (30.5% of the total, from 21.6%), and reduced shorts (68.6%, from 71.7%), but remained overall short (nett minus 38.1, from minus 50.1). Big Specs held 43.0% of the total longs (well down on the week), but their shorts were barely changed (at 13.8%, compared to 12.3%). This put their nett at plus 29.2, versus 39.6 the previous week. Small Specs again generally reduced commitments, while staying nett long (plus 9.0, versus plus 10.5). Commercials' activity suggests a steadier Pound, softer Dollar.
EUROS were less positive - nett: Commercials minus 26.4 (from minus 22.3), Big Specs plus 22.3 (from plus 17.1), and Small Specs plus 4.1 (from plus 5.2). Small Specs hold 26.3% of the total open interest, but seem very undecided as to direction - Commercials (with 46.9% of the total, and nett short) appear to offer the best guidance.
Tuesday, 15 February 2011
More thoughts (not very different)
(All figures basis Feb 8th)
Gold total open interest is starting to rise again, albeit only slightly. Spreads are still low - around 4.7% of the total O/I, against a normal 10 - 13%. Commercials continue to reduce longs, but are now adding to shorts. Small Spec positions are barely changed - indeed, their nett is the same as last week at 9.6 positive. As usual, Big Specs are following the trend, adding to longs and reducing shorts in a rising market. Overall not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions have swung back towards normal - Commercials plus 1.7 (from minus 2.5), Big Specs minus 0.1 (from plus 2.2), Small Specs minus 1.6 (from plus 1.3). Biggest changes are: Commercials adding to longs, and Small Specs reducing longs and adding to shorts - should be bullish in due course. Big Specs added noticeably to shorts.
BP continued in the same direction as previously - Commercials adding disproportionately to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and Small Specs generally reducing commitments, but staying nett long.
Euros also remained on course - nett: Commercials minus 23.9 (from minus 22.2), Big Specs plus 17.3 (from plus 19.1), and Small Specs plus 6.6 (from plus 3.1).
On both, should ultimately bring Dollar strength.
Gold total open interest is starting to rise again, albeit only slightly. Spreads are still low - around 4.7% of the total O/I, against a normal 10 - 13%. Commercials continue to reduce longs, but are now adding to shorts. Small Spec positions are barely changed - indeed, their nett is the same as last week at 9.6 positive. As usual, Big Specs are following the trend, adding to longs and reducing shorts in a rising market. Overall not very exciting.
Mini S&P nett positions have swung back towards normal - Commercials plus 1.7 (from minus 2.5), Big Specs minus 0.1 (from plus 2.2), Small Specs minus 1.6 (from plus 1.3). Biggest changes are: Commercials adding to longs, and Small Specs reducing longs and adding to shorts - should be bullish in due course. Big Specs added noticeably to shorts.
BP continued in the same direction as previously - Commercials adding disproportionately to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and Small Specs generally reducing commitments, but staying nett long.
Euros also remained on course - nett: Commercials minus 23.9 (from minus 22.2), Big Specs plus 17.3 (from plus 19.1), and Small Specs plus 6.6 (from plus 3.1).
On both, should ultimately bring Dollar strength.
Wednesday, 9 February 2011
COT thoughts
(All figures basis Feb 1st)
Gold total open interest is well down - but much of that is due to liquidation of a major Spread position, said to be based on differential changes rather than on market direction. Spreads are now around 5% of the total O/I, against 14% in early Jan. Commercials are reducing longs more than shorts, whereas Small Specs are holding longs but sharply reducing shorts - both proportionately slightly bearish.
Mini S&P nett positions show major changes - Commercials moving to sizeable nett short, Big Specs going longer than previously, and Small Specs back to near square (from nett short). Should be bearish if anything.
BP and Euros show Commercials adding to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and small specs retaining a small nett long position. Should ultimately bring Dollar strength.
Gold total open interest is well down - but much of that is due to liquidation of a major Spread position, said to be based on differential changes rather than on market direction. Spreads are now around 5% of the total O/I, against 14% in early Jan. Commercials are reducing longs more than shorts, whereas Small Specs are holding longs but sharply reducing shorts - both proportionately slightly bearish.
Mini S&P nett positions show major changes - Commercials moving to sizeable nett short, Big Specs going longer than previously, and Small Specs back to near square (from nett short). Should be bearish if anything.
BP and Euros show Commercials adding to nett shorts, Big Specs adding to nett longs, and small specs retaining a small nett long position. Should ultimately bring Dollar strength.
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Something odd in BP & Euro COT
Figures published Jan 21st show a massive fall in Commercial longs and rise in Commercial shorts in both Pounds and Euros. Contrariwise, Big Specs show large rise in longs and large fall in shorts. Nett figs have switched over - BP Commercials are now nett short (from nett long), Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short - Euro Commercials are now nett short from nett long, and both Big and Small Specs are nett long from nett short. Thought is needed - conclusions asap ....
Sunday, 2 January 2011
Weather Warning ...
Today's Sunday Times reports that Abu Dhabi has been making rain in the desert - do they know about this?
< San Diego offers to pay "rainmaker" Charles Hatfield $10,000 to bring rain to fill a new reservoir. When rain causes flooding and severe damage, the city refuses to pay him. (San Diego, California, USA, Jan 1916)>
< San Diego offers to pay "rainmaker" Charles Hatfield $10,000 to bring rain to fill a new reservoir. When rain causes flooding and severe damage, the city refuses to pay him. (San Diego, California, USA, Jan 1916)>
Tuesday, 28 December 2010
Isn't modern science wonderful !
"Baby joy for Sir Elton John and David Furnish
Celebrity friends offer congratulations
after little boy born on Christmas Day"
[News Headline on AOL]
Celebrity friends offer congratulations
after little boy born on Christmas Day"
[News Headline on AOL]
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