COT data of Aug 26th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 233435, spreads 4638 (2.0%).  Closing price Aug 26th 1.6545

Nett differences:  Commercials -17413 (from -16001)  Large Specs +15467 (from +13287)  Small Specs +1946 (from +2714)

Proportions:    

Commercials (60.6% of total o/i) -

56.8% of Longs (from 56.6%), 64.4% of Shorts (vs 63.5%), balance minus 7.6 (vs minus 6.9)

Large Specs (27.6% of total) -

31.0% of Longs (from 31.0%), 24.3% of Shorts (vs 25.3%), balance plus 6.7 (vs plus 5.7)

Small Specs (11.8% of total) -

12.2% of Longs (from 12.4%), 11.3% of Shorts (vs 11.2%), balance plus 0.9 (vs plus 1.2) 

Total open interest fell slightly, but there was little significant change overall. Small Specs hold a remarkably small long position, while Commercials remain only slightly short. On this basis, we continue to believe that It could be time to join the Commercials and look for reasons to buy.

COT data of Aug 19th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237291, spreads 4132 (1.7%).  Closing price Aug 19th 1.6615

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -16001 (from -23466)  Large Specs +13287 (from +18799)  Small Specs +2714 (from +4667)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (60.1% of total o/i) -

56.6% of Longs (from 57.0%), 63.5% of Shorts (vs 67.6%), balance minus 6.9 (vs minus 10.6)

Large Specs (28.1% of total) -

31.0% of Longs (from 29.5%), 25.3% of Shorts (vs 21.0%), balance plus 5.7 (vs plus 8.5)

Small Specs (11.8% of total) -

12.4% of Longs (from 13.5%), 11.2% of Shorts (vs 11.4%), balance plus 1.2 (vs plus 2.1) 

 

Total open interest jumped, as Large Specs entered the market more aggressively, on the short side. Commercials added to longs (although not proportionately), while cutting shorts considerably. Large Specs were mixed, but on balance added to shorts as the downtrend continued. Small Specs added marginally to nett shorts while being stopped out of longs. It could be time to join the Commercials and look for reasons to buy.

[Total open interest on the Dollar Index rose once again, with Commercials adding to shorts and Large Specs adding to longs. Small Specs remain a marginal influence.  Proportional balances: Commercials minus 39.7 (from minus 38.0), Large Specs plus 31.3 (from plus 28.4), Small Specs plus 8.4 (from plus 9.6). The uptrend continues, but may be losing friends. ]

COT data of Aug 12th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 223719, spreads 2226 (1.0%).  Closing price Aug 12th 1.6810 (latest [Friday] 1.6690)

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -23466 (from -20209)  Large Specs +18799 (from +12121)  Small Specs +4667 (from +8088)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (62.3% of total o/i) -

57.0% of Longs (from 56.4%), 67.6% of Shorts (vs 65.3%), balance minus 10.6 (vs minus 8.9)

Large Specs (25.3% of total) -

29.5% of Longs (from 29.3%), 21.0% of Shorts (vs 24.0%), balance plus 8.5 (vs plus 5.3)

Small Specs (12.4% of total) -

13.5% of Longs (from 14.3%), 11.4% of Shorts (vs 10.7%), balance plus 2.1 (vs plus 3.6) 

 

Total open interest continued to decline. Commercials started adding to shorts again, although only marginally; Large Specs took profits on shorts, while staying overall long - although only minimally. Small Specs remained long, but even less so than previously. No extremes, so no significant signals - it seems Wednesday's price fall came as something of a surprise.

 

[Total open interest on the Dollar Index rose again, although nett differences showed very little change. Large Specs continue to hold around 65% of the total, and remain quite long. Commercials were barely changed. Proportional balances: Commercials minus 38.0 (from minus 39.1), Large Specs plus 28.4 (from plus 29.8), Small Specs plus 9.6 (from plus 9.3). No particular signals this week. ]

COT data of Aug 5th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 230801, spreads 4114 (1.8%).  Closing price Aug 5th 1.6885

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -20209 (from -37541)  Large Specs +12121 (from +24910)  Small Specs +8088 (from +12631)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (60.9% of total o/i) -

56.4% of Longs (from 52.6%), 65.3% of Shorts (vs 60.7%), balance minus 8.9 (vs minus 16.1)

Large Specs (26.9% of total) -

29.3% of Longs (from 32.3%), 24.0% of Shorts (vs 21.6%), balance plus 5.3 (vs plus 10.7)

Small Specs (12.5% of total) -

14.3% of Longs (from 15.1%), 10.7% of Shorts (vs 9.7%), balance plus 3.6 (vs plus 5.4) 

 

Once again, total open interest continued to decline; Commercials cut their shorts considerably, while adding slightly to longs: Large Specs on the other hand cut their longs and added to shorts. Small Specs remained long, but not to any great degree. Based on these figures, Commercials believe that Sterling should start to improve soon.

 

[Total open interest on the Dollar Index jumped again, with Large Specs now holding over 65% of the total, and staying quite long. Commercials went shorter on the rally. Proportional balances: Commercials minus 39.1 (from minus 36.5), Large Specs plus 29.8 (from plus 27.2), Small Specs plus 9.3 (unchanged) ]

COT data of July 29th 2014 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i 237411, spreads 3847 (1.6%).  Closing price July 29th 1.6945

 

Nett differences:  Commercials -37541 (from -44883)  Large Specs +24910 (from +27497)  Small Specs +12631 (from +17386)   

 

Proportions:    

Commercials (60.7% of total o/i) -

52.6% of Longs (from 53.3%), 68.7% of Shorts (vs 72.2%), balance minus 16.1 (vs minus 18.9)

Large Specs (26.9% of total) -

32.3% of Longs (from 30.2%), 21.6% of Shorts (vs 18.6%), balance plus 10.7 (vs plus 11.6)

Small Specs (12.4% of total) -

15.1% of Longs (from 16.5%), 9.7% of Shorts (vs 9.2%), balance plus 5.4 (vs plus 7.3) 

 

Total open interest continued to shrink, with Commercials still covering their shorts while Large Specs added (slightly) to theirs. Small Specs remain long, but much less so. Last week's comment remains valid - further easing is likely, but not to any major extent.

[Total open interest on the Dollar Index jumped considerably, although the nett positions changed less than might have been expected. Commercials moved their balance down from minus 44.7 to minus 36.5, while Large Specs went down from plus 33.8 to plus 27.2 - the Euro/Dollar COT might give more helpful guidance.]