COT data of Jan 22nd 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 160820, but spreads were up once more, at 2153, increasing their proportion to around 1.3% - suggesting that uncertainty remains a factor in the market. 

 

Nett differences:

Commercials -23389 (from -46945).  Large Specs +17938 (from +28338).  Small Specs +5451 (from +18607). Small Specs show the smallest nett long since late August 2012, after which point the market started to firm.

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (51.4% of total o/i) - 44.1% of Longs, 58.8% of Shorts, balance minus 14.7

Large Specs (32.3% of total) - 37.9% of Longs, 26.6% of Shorts, balance plus 11.3

Small Specs (16.3% of total) - 18.0% of Longs, 14.6% of Shorts, balance plus 3.4

Commercials added considerably to longs, and reduced shorts; Large Specs added considerasbly to shorts, while reducing longs. Small Specs reduced longs and added to shorts, both to a marked degree, but maintained a 'normal' share of the total market.

Tuesday's close was well down from the previous week, at 1.5840 against 1.6065, but the figures above suggest that this fall may not continue. If Commercials continue to add to longs and reduce shorts - particularly with Small Specs doing the opposite - we could see the beginnings of a steady period for the Pound. 

COT data of Jan 15th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was a little lower, at 163295, but spreads were up, at 1568, increasing the proportion to around 1.0% - not surprisingly, given the price swings and resulting uncertainty.

Nett differences:

Commercials -46945 (from -43421).  Large Specs +28338 (from +25949).  Small Specs +18607 (from +17292). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (52.6% of total o/i) - 38.1% of Longs, 67.1% of Shorts, balance minus 29.0

Large Specs (30.7% of total) - 39.4% of Longs, 21.9% of Shorts, balance plus 17.5

Small Specs (16.7% of total) - 22.5% of Longs, 11.0% of Shorts, balance plus 11.5

Commercials reduced longs more than shorts, while Large Specs added to longs more than to shorts. Small Specs made little significant change to their positions.

With Tuesday's close almost unchanged from the previous week, at 1.6065 against 1.6055, but big price swings both before and since then, it is hard to draw conclusions from the once-a-week figures, but on balance - with Commercials still favouring the short side - we revert to our previous stance, of slightly negative on the Pound.

COT data of Jan 8th 2013 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - Total o/i was lower again, at 165584, but spreads were up, at 982. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -43421 (from -61235).  Large Specs +25949 (from +36308).  Small Specs +17292 (from +24927). 

Although the nett differences showed a considerable change from the previous week, the share of the total o/i held by each class did not alter much (see below). 

 

Proportions:  

Commercials (54.5% of total o/i) - 41.3% of Longs, 67.6% of Shorts, balance minus 26.3

Large Specs (28.9% of total) - 36.8% of Longs, 21.0% of Shorts, balance plus 15.8

Small Specs (16.6% of total) - 21.9% of Longs, 11.4% of Shorts, balance plus 10.5

Commercials made big changes to both longs and shorts, increasing the former and reducing the latter.
Large Specs went the opposite way, reducing longs and increasing shorts, with Small Specs acting in
similar fashion, although to a lesser extent.

Thursday's big rally from the 1.60 area may have changed things, but based on the figures above, and considering the move by Commercials to a much reduced nett short,  we are now considerably less negative on the Pound.

COT data of Dec 31st 2012 - British Pound [BP]

British Pounds - (NB all figures were taken at the close of Dec 31st, owing to the holiday break). Total o/i on Dec 31st was lower, at 174676, with spreads remaining very low, at 129. 

Nett differences:

Commercials -61235 (from -62763).  Large Specs +36308 (from +37321).  Small Specs +24927 (from +25442).   

Proportions:  

Commercials (53.6% of total o/i) - 36.1% of Longs, 71.2% of Shorts, balance minus 35.1

Large Specs (29.2% of total) - 39.6% of Longs, 18.8% of Shorts, balance plus 20.8

Small Specs (17.2% of total) - 24.3% of Longs, 10.0% of Shorts, balance plus 14.3 

Commercials reduced both logs and shorts, but on balance went a shade shorter. Large Specs also reduced both longs and shorts, going very slightly longer on balance. Small Specs added to both longs and shorts, with little change showing up on their proportionate share - plus 14.3, from plus 14.1. However, they now hold a comparatively large share of the total o/i, at 17.2%.

There is nothing here to change our opinion - negative on the Pound.